Happy Memorial Day!!

OK, this isn't good. I am finding myself jealous of the day one outlooks that outline a slight risk for an area within the CONUS. Today, a slight risk exists for storms in the ND/SD/NE area. They are counting on the heating to reach the perfect mix. A 5% tornado chance is outlined in ND/SD, but the shear will only be marginal, which makes for an isolated chance at best. Yep, I am so stinking jealous of that outlook that I can't stand it. Chasers are getting into position for that or the action tomorrow in Texas/Oklahoma. In fact, tomorrow looks like a Steve day. Lucky dogs. I am sitting here wondering how thick the smoke will be, and they are out trying to catch tornadoes. Oh, the humanity!

Well, the guys have added a feature to the NWS page, that I found very interesting and beneficial. They have added a site that shows where the smoke is headed. I have played in it some. You can check it for every hour. Looks like by about noon, the smoke will be headed straight for us coming from our east (the Ware/Charlton Fire over the swamp). Sadly, it looks like it's drawn to us. There are lots of features on this site for Air Quality Forecast Guidance, so feel free to check it out. I just got a call that Mini-Dew's swimming lessons are cancelled for today on account of the smoke. Thickest smoke is expected... HERE today, you know, right HERE. Wouldn't you know it? Happy Memorial Day! Let's take a moment to remember the days before the smoke...

As for the rest of weather... looks like a decent cap at about 780 hPa. Hoping for a break this afternoon as the ridge "relaxes" some to allow for the sea-breeze to do something. Thanks to the strong cap, though, convection should be held at bay. There is talk of some isolated shower activity, but we'll see what develops. Another item worth mentioning is the fact that dewpoints are rising, so our dry air will turn to sticky, muggy air trapped under a blanket of smoke... joy. How beautiful some rain would be. In the long term discussion, talk of an approaching trough that should drop rain on the western CWA, but as for us...

ONLY PLACE THAT STILL LOOKS UNLIKELY TO SEE ANY CONVECTION IS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL GA WHERE MOISTURE MAY STILL BE LACKING.

... to be specifically called out like that. I feel like the last kid picked for the team in gym class... Looking ahead to Saturday/Sunday seems to be ourt best shot... hopefully, it's not a long shot. Oddly enough, I am set to leave on Sunday. You know something will happen then.

The Pacific has their first Tropical Depression being tracked, and we are looking at

A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 13N79W.

There is still some disagreement in the models regarding what will happen in the tropics, where it will go and so forth. All we can hope is that it offers up a shot at that precipitation that we so desperately need.

Still talk of a ridge moving in off the west coast, which just plain stinks for my chase plans...

I'm off to start my day. I'm thinking grocery shopping, furniture shopping (Mini-Dew's new room decor), a little HAM radio training and then practice for Mini-Dew. Busy day. I'd better get cracking.

Toodles,
~Dewdrop