Moderate risk, right here...

SKY WATCH FRIDAY time! Please visit Klaus, Sandy, Ivar, Wren, Louise and Fishing Guy, the team for SKY WATCH FRIDAY (click the word to link and participate!) Thanks to Dot and Tom, who were instrumental in the success of this blogging event. You should definitely come fly with us!OK, I knew that tomorrow's set-up looked ripe. I knew that they have been expecting the most severe storm of the year, in fact trying to compare the storm to horrific outbreaks of the past, but I did not expect that I would wake up to see myself in the area of moderate risk for severe weather. Worse, it looks like a night event.The first is a snapshot of the current radar activity with the mapped out areas of severe probabilities. The second shows the likelihood of tornadic activity. An unfortunate issue is that the portion impacting my neck of the woods is expected to arrive in the middle of the night. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC)has issued a Public Severe Weather Outlook for us. Yikes.

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH REGION INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

ALABAMA
NORTHERN FLORIDA
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA
MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN TENNESSEE

INTENSE SPRING STORM SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BRING A RISK OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING EARLY TODAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH. ADDITIONAL AREA OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVOLVE OUT OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA...FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA TODAY.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME VERY STRONG AS ENHANCED WIND FIELDS ALOFT OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS GULF MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHWARD AND FUELS A LARGE AREA OF UNSTABLE AIR WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WILL EVOLVE AS SUPERCELLS AND SMALL LINES OF STORMS. TORNADOES...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE QUITE STRONG AND/OR LONGER-LIVED...ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE REGION. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE ADDITIONAL HAZARDS FROM THESE STORMS.

It looks like rough day and night lies ahead...

THEN TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED...SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG AND LONG TRACK. BETWEEN 18-00Z IT APPEARS THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL BE ACROSS NRN LA/SERN AR/MS INTO WRN AL/TN.

FARTHER SOUTHEAST (where I am)... SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG ATOP AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. IN FACT EMBEDDED IMPULSES WITHIN THIS FLOW MAY ACTIVATE ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EARLY IN THE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS REGION ARE IMPRESSIVE WITH SHEAR/INSTABILITY STRONGLY INDICATIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF GENERATING TORNADOES...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG.

Oh dear... (clickable image) A tornado watch has just been issued for my area for this first impulse, but the main event should arrive later. I have a bad feeling.

9:30: Impressive cell headed my way... has rotated at points.Thursday, of course. The storm fell apart, and is just one huge blanket of rain with thunder and lightning sporadically thrown in for good measure... with such rains, especially to our north, we are experiencing flooding locally. Already some rescues have had to take place where the river is absolutely out of control. With all this rain, it continues to rise. This is the house across from my wonderful gtb's parents yesterday. I just spoke with his mother, and she said the water is much higher today.It is currently up to the A/C unit, but my wonderful gtb has seen it just short of the road. Due to flooding and road closures and continued rain and more in the forecast, they have decided to cancel school tomorrow. Gee, great.



I just worry at this point at people's perspectives. They are hearing severe weather warnings and this first impulse might make them think that the threat is over, but the threat arrives tonight, too! Don't let your guard down people.The tornado watch has expanded...
5:40PM, rotation headed this way:6:30PM Running out of time before this rotating mess is upon me...~Dewdrop