Just a quick tropical update... Tropical Storm Josephine lost all her stuff and is now just a remnant low. They do not expect her to reform.
Tropical Storm Hanna made landfall, as just under a hurricane, between line between the Carolinas. Thousands are without power as the now Extra-Tropical Storm Hanna ripped her way through that area. She is now up in Maine, dropping buckets of rain. She was over my dad early this morning. Mikey has great coverage of Tropical Storm Hanna, a very picturesque storm in his neck of the woods.
The big story is Hurricane Ike. Hurricane Ike, now at category 4 hurricane, with his quite impressive eye is making his way toward Great Inagua island at this moment with his sites set on Cuba. 
Unfortunately for Cuba, Hurricane Ike is still an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS category 4 Hurricane, with intensification forecasted, most likely bringing Hurricane Ike to just under category 5. Fortunately for the Gulf Coast, that part of Cuba should tear her up, causing him to weaken substantially, which is good because he seems to want to follow in Gustav's footsteps. Yikes.
I was inputting my CoCoRaHS data this morning and this was today's CoCoRaHS message of the day... entitled "What to do with Dew?"... I am sure the team asks the same thing... What to do with dew?
Cracked me up.
On mornings with very heavy dew, moisture may condense on the funnel of your gauge and then drip into the measurement cylinder. Should that be reported as precipitation?
The answer is no. Dew is condensation on the surface, not precipitation from the sky. If you find moisture in your gauge from dew, do not include that in your precipitation report. Dew may be a valuable source of water, however, for plants, animals and insects. If you observe heavy dew, report that in your “Observation Notes”
Thanks for participating in CoCoRaHS!
Have a great Sunday!
~Dewdrop
Sunday, September 07, 2008
What to do about Ike???
Friday, September 05, 2008
Tropical Storm Hanna almost upon us, with Hurricane Ike hot on her trail....
My SKY WATCH FRIDAY POST IS BELOW...
I want to put out a tropical update... cause I love tracking this stuff. 
Well, as you can see in the graphic above. We still have the 1,2,3 PUNCH, the series of tropical systems moving this way.
BRIEF SUMMARY
The unfortunate news for the Carolina coast (**and this is just my own assessment**) is that Hanna appears to be really pulling in strong convection and actually forming an eye. With this kind of organization, the likelihood increases that Hanna will make it to hurricane strength before the anticipated landfall along the South Carolina coast. I do see her as more significant than she has been letting on though, and I think the forecast of a TS landfall will be amended at the 11AM. Again, that's just me. The official forecast doesn't come from me.
What can I say about Hurricane Ike? That impressive looking hurricane has taken a beating under the northeasterlies and has still maintained major hurricane strength, though he's extremely bottom heavy. Please don't write him off though. He may lose strength over the next couple of days in this harsh environment, but signs definitely point to intensification back up to major hurricane after the rough period. If Ike can steer clear of Cuba, he is liable to become an extremely dangerous hurricane and seems to have his sites set on southern Florida. The national Hurricane Center is urging people not to get hung up on the 72 hour forecast track and beyond because truly ANYTHING can happen. The models have not really come into alignment at all... this is not a good thing. Basically... everyone needs to keep an eye on this fella.
Tropical Storm Josephine is not very convectively sound, but she has intensified and has a pretty spin about her. She is most likely destined for fishhood... which I think the east coast , Cuba and the Bahamas are probably happy to breath a sigh of relief about. Enough already. The models are pretty consistently putting this one out to sea.
The cool thing is that with Hanna's large size, her arms of convection are seen here, not really solid convective bands, but some stratocumulus was moving in over us with this sky on the edge... how pretty, huh? 
I love altocumulus when it's so beautifully blue behind it.
11AM Update: Regarding Hanna: THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT FOR THE FIRST 36 HR TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL. NONE OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT HANNA WILL REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL...ALTHOUGH THIS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
Also, the new trajectory for Ike is particularly interesting... it brings things a lot closer to the possibility for the Tally "Doomesday scenario"... of a Big Bend landfall to happen...
Great googaly moogaly. Official Disclaimer: IT CANNOT BE REPEATED ENOUGH THAT FOUR- AND FIVE-DAY TRACK FORECASTS CAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT ERRORS...AND COMBINED WITH THE FACT THAT THE MODEL SPREAD IS STILL NOTABLE BEYOND 72 HOURS...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK.
Have a lovely weekend. Carolinas, hang on tight.
~Dewdrop
Thursday, September 04, 2008
Hanna and Ike and Josephine... oh my!
It's Sky Watch Friday post time!!(Please visit Tom, Klaus, Sandy and Imac's SKY WATCH BLOG (click here or on the logo) to participate in Sky Watch Fridays. It is so interesting to see skies all over the world!!! I highly recommend it!) For my sky shot, I have decided to post my sky from yesterday morning. I was intrigued by the wispy cirrus combined with the cirrocumulus patchiness that seemed to cover my entire sky yesterday morning, and as the sun rose into the sky, it actually formed a mackerel sky pattern.
Remember, yesterday, I posted the strandy cirrus which fed into the cirrocumulus? I think, above we are actually looking at more of a combination of cirrocumulus and altocumulus, as some are less translucent and seem to have a bit of a grey shadow... most likely as the temperature fluctuates and they lose heighth.Cirrocumulus clouds are high-altitude cloud, usually occurring at 16,000-40,000 feet. By appearance, the cirrocumulus is a small, white patch or tuft without a gray shadow. It occurs in patches or sheets along with other cirrocumulus. These often are organized in rows like other cumulus, but since they are so small, cirrocumulus patches take on a finer appearance, sometimes referred to colloquially as "herringbone" or "mackerel".
The cirrocumulus is distinguished from the somewhat similar altocumulus in several ways, although the two cloud types can occasionally occur together with no clear demarcation between them. Cirrocumulus generally occur at higher altitudes than altocumulus, and thus the "cloudlets" appear smaller as they are more distant from observation at ground level. They are also colder. Cirrocumulus clouds never cast self-shadows and are translucent to certain degree. They are also typically found amongst other cirrus clouds in the sky, and are usually themselves seen to be transforming into these other types of cirrus.
TROPICAL UPDATE:
LOOKS CAN CERTAINLY BE DECEIVING. HANNA HAS NOT BEEN PRODUCING VERY MUCH DEEP CONVECTION... AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS WEST CONTINUES TO IMPOSE STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR. NEVERTHELESS...HANNA HAS A LARGE AND ROBUST CIRCULATION
Hanna is expected to make landfall on the South/North Carolina coast as a hurricane sometime Saturday. The coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas are under a hurricane watch in anticipation of Hanna's arrival.
Unfortunately, even the models feel that way, taking Ike anywhere from the Gulf of Mexico, potentially making a Gulf Shore landfall, to the east coast of Florida, making an easy chase for Jeff, or perhaps, following Hanna still on up to the Carolinas, or even possibly carrying him out into the wide expanse of the Atlantic as a fish. All eyes on Ike... after we're finished watching Hanna, of course. The official forecast being that... IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WHAT LAND AREAS ARE LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY THIS HURRICANE.
... and we have...
That's all I've got for the Tropics... whew.
Have a wonderful day!
~Dewdrop
Wednesday, September 03, 2008
Following in each other's footsteps...
It's crazy how these tropical systems have just lined up like this... and yes, that is another wave moving off the African coast behind Josephine. Ay Caramba...! Currently, I am keeping an eye on Tropical Storm Hanna, as she seems to be finishing up her little loop-dee-loop down near Haiti, awaiting that north northwest turn that all the models have been expecting. If she doesn't hurry up and get out of there, the almost hurricane Ike is liable to take her out. 1100 AM AST WED SEP 03 2008
He is actually on course for heading to Hanna's current location. Run, Hanna, Run!
...IKE ALMOST A HURRICANE...
Current shots:
Tropical Depression Gustav is still spinning up trouble over in the Louisiana area, with a tornado actually killing a couple during the night. How awful! Actually, there were 20 tornadoes reported yesterday resulting from the remnant low pressure system formerly associated with Gustav! 20 tornadoes! That'll boost that trend graphic. Sure enough...
In closing, I would like to share this morning's beautiful sky with you. What a nice treat! 
5PM Update: 500 PM AST WED SEP 03 2008
Incidentally, I abbreviate my hurricane tracking chart... TD 10, TS H, TS J... now we have H I!!! Hi, HI!
...IKE BECOMES THE FIFTH HURRICANE OF THE 2008 ATLANTIC SEASON...
Have a wonderful day!
~Dewdrop
Monday, September 01, 2008
Hurricane Gustav, Bark Worse than Bite?
Well, Hurricane Gustav, a weak category 3 hurricane, is rapidly approaching the Louisiana coast. Gustav allowed quite a bit of dry air into the system while moving across the Gulf preventing him from growing up into the storm they feared he might have become. The fear was that he would continue to intensify as he moved across the ripe conditions of the Gulf of Mexico after passing through Cuba. That has not happened. Don't get me wrong, this is still a major hurricane. Hurricane Katrina struck Louisiana as a category 3 hurricane, which is what Gustav is now. Fortunately, the storm was taken seriously, and in many of the low lying areas, a large majority of the populations have been evacuated well ahead of time. 
My fear is that memories of Katrina will be overtaken by this "false alarm" (if you will with likely just some strong wind and rain with it quickly moving ashore, likely less devastation than Katrina, praise God), and people will feel they evacuated for nothing and become less proactive and responsive next time. The worst of it hasn't come, and I could be way off base regarding the impact, but I don't think I am that far off.
That brings us to the runner up... Tropical Storm Hanna, still meandering her way around the western Atlantic... looking like a big pile of mess yesterday but seeming to get her act together this morning. Now that she has ruined a few vacations to the Bahamas, she is set to make a turn to the northwest, and head up this way. 
She's not moving very quickly on that journey, but she is eventually expected to make landfall around the Georgia/South Carolina coast line as a hurricane. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE NEARLY IDENTICAL FORECAST SCENARIOS OF THE MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERNS.
ALL INTERESTS IN FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECASTS FOR HANNA SINCE ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE WEST OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER OF HANNA MUCH CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND THE BAHAMAS THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED.
With Gustav about to make landfall, Hanna trying to get her act together for a potential upcoming landfall as Hurricane Hanna... you might think that's all, well... no. There are a few areas of interest out there with one between the African coast and the Leeward Islands looking like it might become Tropical Depression 9 during the course of today. Another off the African coast has some potential for development.
Hang onto your hats folks, looks like we've got quite a year brewing.
11AM Update: 1000 AM CDT MON SEP 01 2008
Hurricane Gustav is making landfall in Cocodrie, LA as a strong category 2 hurricane, headed for Houma, LA.
...CENTER OF GUSTAV MAKES LANDFALL NEAR COCODRIE LOUISIANA...
1100 AM AST MON SEP 01 2008
Could become... Tropical Storm Ike...
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS HALF WAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...
1:30 Update: Hanna is now a Hurricane!!!130 PM AST MON SEP 01 2008
Have a wonderful Labor Day!
...HANNA BECOMES THE FOURTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...
~Dewdrop
Friday, August 29, 2008
Tropical Update by Dewdrop
SKY WATCH FRIDAY POST IS BELOW...
I just wanted to post an update on the tropical activity currently underway...
Tropical Storm Gustav took a beating over the mountainous terrain of Jamaica, losing some of his structure and strength, but has quickly started to build back appearances and dropped in pressure since the previous advisory as he has started to emerge off the shores there. 
The expectation is that Tropical Storm Gustav will quickly be upgraded to a hurricane and continue to move over warm waters headed toward the open and very ripe Gulf of Mexico, where he will most likely ramp up to a major hurricane. Warnings are being taken quite seriously all along the Gulf, and evacuations begin today in an effort to get as many residents to safety ahead of time as possible. The current trajectory places a strong Hurricane Gustav in western Louisiana around Tuesday/Wednesday. New Orleans falls well within the cone of possibility though, and the northeast quadrant of a major hurricane would mean dangerous storm surge, torrential rain, powerful wind and possibly tornadoes. ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE GULF SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR GUSTAV!!!! 
We also have Tropical Storm Hanna, starting to get her act together once again after losing some of her structure and presentation overnight, due to some shear interference from a nearby upper low. 
If the low subsides, she is likely to gain hurricane strength over the next couple of days as she remains vigilant on her course. One interesting thing is that the models are taking her to the southwest on her approach... which would bring her into the Bahamas area. Could Hanna miss the eastern side Floridian peninsula and emerge in the Gulf?
3:15PM Update:
Happy Friday!!!
~Dewdrop
Thursday, August 28, 2008
Could someone put the tropics back to sleep...?
Happy Sky Watch Friday!! Here's my post!!! (Please visit Tom, Klaus, Sandy and Imac's SKY WATCH BLOG (click here or on the logo) to participate in Sky Watch Fridays. It really is so much fun and interesting to see skies all over the world!!! I highly recommend it!) My Skywatch Friday picture today is in honor of the extremely limited visibility I had this morning while I drove to work. The radiation fog was so thick that in some spots I couldn't see 50 yards in front of me. I certainly couldn't see the "sky".
Now, I did not take this picture this morning... but it was taken on a foggy morning, such as today. There are a couple of elements of the shot that I especially love... 1. My anemometer (tool for measuring windspeed) is silhouetted in the sun radiating through the fog. 2. The dew (I'm a big fan of Dew, aren't you?) is evident on the tree in the shot. You cannot have fog without Dew. :O)
Fog is really cloud that forms near the ground, and like cloud, fog forms as a result of condensation. Probably the most common form of fog is radiation fog, so named because it is produced by radiational cooling of the ground. This happens at night, when heat absorbed by the Earth's surface during the day is radiated back into space. The highest degree of radiational cooling occurs on clear nights, when there are no clouds to reradiate the heat back to Earth.
OK, enough about the sky, or the lack of sky in my case... onto the active tropical Atlantic. I have been talking a lot in recent days about Fay and Gustav... they are still there and doing their thing... we also now have Tropical Depression 8! TD 8 is hot on the heels of Gustav, but is a larger, currently better looking tropical system.
Radiational cooling produces condensation in the air layers immediately above the ground. If only a thin layer of moist air is present, Dew will form; if a thicker layer is present, radiation fog (and dew) will form. [Such as on the day this shot was taken, back in January.]
It is often difficult to predict when dew and fog will occur together. It is possible to have dew without fog, but it is not possible to have fog without dew. The ideal conditions for dew are a still, clear night, high humidity in the air next to the ground, and low humidity in the air above. ~source
Again, I don't want to in any way discard or detract from Gustav, most models build him into a very dangerous MAJOR hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico after this weekend, with sites set somewhere along the Gulf coast! Louisiana's governor has already declared a State of Emergency, which activates the assistance of the National Guard, no doubt motivated by the lingering memories of the devastation caused by category 3 land-falling Hurricane Katrina back in 2005. The currently barely under hurricane strength (having gained strength overnight), intensifying, most likely future Hurricane Gustav could have a similar course, and I am relieved to hear that they seem to have learned a lesson. Hopefully, it won't have to be tested in the same way, but let's hope everyone has and preparations along the Gulf are hard underway! Gustav is really pulling it together this morning, and with only Jamaica in the way... I expect him to be back at hurricane strength at the next advisory (if not sooner). He should be quite a force by the time he gets up into the Gulf. Currently, they are not forecasting any landfalls between now and then... which means, strengthen, strengthen, strengthen...
Of course, there is still TD Fay wreaking havoc and dropping buckets of rain everywhere she goes. Fortunately, she is headed offshore soon and will leave us alone. There is talk that Tropical Storm Fay might have her name placed in the Hall of Retired Storms and we will never again see the name Fay. It's not common for tropical storms to have their names retired, but not unheard of... The last time a tropical storm name was retired was back in 2002 when they retired 2001's Tropical Storm Allison. Hurricane Allison 1989, having replaced retired Hurricane Alicia, a hurricane that brought heavy damage to southeast Texas, coincidentally caused great damage in the same area. Even more unlikely is that though Hurricane Allison was not retired, another Tropical Storm Allison in 2001 again devastated southeast Texas, with its name retired in 2002 and replaced by Andrea for 2007.
And yes, we have Tropical Depression number 8. Don't get too comfortable with that designation though because I expect that TD 8 will be called Hanna by this afternoon. She is looking very well organized, is in a favorable environment, AND they expect the soon Tropical Storm Hanna will become a hurricane within 3 days. THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE...PREDICTING AN INTENSE HURRICANE.
Florida... this looks like yours.
I won't even get into a discussion about the stuff coming off the coast of Africa right now... but... sheesh.
11AM UPDATE: 1100 AM AST THU AUG 28 2008
Bingo! Oh, and Gustav's pressure dropped 5mb. You can expect a hurricane classification prior to the next advisory.
...HANNA BECOMES EIGHTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON...
Have a lovely day!
~Dewdrop
