Hurricane Dean... continued...

With Erin gone and done, I am setting my sights on Hurricane Dean, who just breezed between Martinique and St. Lucia this AM. Somehow he aimed right between those two islands; however, both islands, no doubt, felt the brunt of it, experiencing nasty high end Cat 2 winds. Now, Martinique and Dominica being in that Northeast quadrant are being battered by Hurricane Dean in the worst way. You can see in the satellite image above (or you can check out this satellite loop offering a broader view), two things... 1. Dean does NOT have a well defined eye. It is filled in, which limits his capacity for growth, but latest images seem to show an eyewall trying to emerge. 2. Dry air keeps getting drawn into the circulation which hurts his ability to strengthen. Dry air is like kryptonite to a hurricane, so he will struggle through the introduction of dry slots, but I think he'll fair just fine (maintaining his strength, I mean). He is a force to be reckoned with. It is still very up in the air as to what Dean will do in the long term. The short term is pretty obvious... He will sail through the Caribbean Sea, drawing from it's warmth and most likely remain south of any significant landmasses (except Jamaica, which isn't all that significant in size but the people there should consider leaving...) until it gets to the area of the Yucatan peninsula... two options there... 1. cut across the peninsula losing some of his power, but reemerging in the Gulf where he should quickly regain some or even all of his lost power and become a dangerous hurricane or the dreaded scenario 2. He could aim himself right through that Yucatan Channel, not being weakened by the peninsula and emerge in the Gulf as a powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane, offering catastrophy to whereever destiny sees fit to deliver him.

MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLING FOR DEAN TO REACH AT LEAST CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH. IF IT INSTEAD MOVES THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IT COULD REMAIN STRONGER.

That second scenario scares me. If Dean does go North and emerge in the Gulf. Any area in the Gulf could be a target. Already they are offering a 40% probability that Dean will be a Cat. 4 or 5 within 48 hours.

Locally, hot and dry...

I will monitor Hurricane Dean with the advisories.

UPDATE: 11AM... Hurricane Dean has once again strengthened after passing through the Lesser Antilles. He has now got maximum sustained winds measuring at 105mph, and latest minimum pressure recorded by AF Hurricane Hunters was 964mb!!! That warm water in the Caribbean will do nothing but fuel that monster. On satellite, it appears that he is tracking more to the North they they were suspecting he might. The official track out of the NHC barely putting him over the Yucatan peninsula. There is a good chance he can sweep through the Yucatan Channel and then, all heck breaks loose! He now is only 6 mph short of a Category 3 major hurricane. Whew.

Toodles,
~Dewdrop