MDs getting closer... it's beginning to look a lot like chase day!!!

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2225
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 PM CST SAT DEC 15 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL...FL PANHANDLE...SWRN GA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 151847Z - 152015Z

DEEP CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY INCREASED OVER THE NCNTRL GULF OF MEXICO INLAND INTO SRN AL/FL PANHANDLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS...SFC DEW POINTS AOA 70F...THAT IS RETURNING ACROSS THIS REGION. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY RESPONSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THIS DEVELOPMENT WITHIN AN OTHERWISE WEAK
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME...SEVERAL LONGER-LIVED UPDRAFTS HAVE EXHIBITED ROTATION...MAINLY WITHIN THE OFFSHORE ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS INLAND ARE SOMEWHAT LIMITED REGARDING INSTABILITY...A BROAD ZONE OF PRESSURE FALLS IN EXCESS OF 3-4 MB OVER THE LAST TWO HOURS SUGGESTS THIS CONVECTION IS EVOLVING WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF FAVORABLE CONVERGENCE/ASCENT. EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS COULD CERTAINLY DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION...PERHAPS GENERATING ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS OR EVEN A TORNADO. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO WATCH.

~Dew