Tropical Storm Hanna almost upon us, with Hurricane Ike hot on her trail....

My SKY WATCH FRIDAY POST IS BELOW...


I want to put out a tropical update... cause I love tracking this stuff. Well, as you can see in the graphic above. We still have the 1,2,3 PUNCH, the series of tropical systems moving this way.

BRIEF SUMMARY

TROPICAL STORM HANNAThe unfortunate news for the Carolina coast (**and this is just my own assessment**) is that Hanna appears to be really pulling in strong convection and actually forming an eye. With this kind of organization, the likelihood increases that Hanna will make it to hurricane strength before the anticipated landfall along the South Carolina coast. I do see her as more significant than she has been letting on though, and I think the forecast of a TS landfall will be amended at the 11AM. Again, that's just me. The official forecast doesn't come from me.

HURRICANE IKEWhat can I say about Hurricane Ike? That impressive looking hurricane has taken a beating under the northeasterlies and has still maintained major hurricane strength, though he's extremely bottom heavy. Please don't write him off though. He may lose strength over the next couple of days in this harsh environment, but signs definitely point to intensification back up to major hurricane after the rough period. If Ike can steer clear of Cuba, he is liable to become an extremely dangerous hurricane and seems to have his sites set on southern Florida. The national Hurricane Center is urging people not to get hung up on the 72 hour forecast track and beyond because truly ANYTHING can happen. The models have not really come into alignment at all... this is not a good thing. Basically... everyone needs to keep an eye on this fella.

TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINETropical Storm Josephine is not very convectively sound, but she has intensified and has a pretty spin about her. She is most likely destined for fishhood... which I think the east coast , Cuba and the Bahamas are probably happy to breath a sigh of relief about. Enough already. The models are pretty consistently putting this one out to sea.

The cool thing is that with Hanna's large size, her arms of convection are seen here, not really solid convective bands, but some stratocumulus was moving in over us with this sky on the edge... how pretty, huh? I love altocumulus when it's so beautifully blue behind it.

11AM Update: Regarding Hanna:

THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT FOR THE FIRST 36 HR TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL. NONE OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT HANNA WILL REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL...ALTHOUGH THIS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

Also, the new trajectory for Ike is particularly interesting... it brings things a lot closer to the possibility for the Tally "Doomesday scenario"... of a Big Bend landfall to happen...Great googaly moogaly. Official Disclaimer:

IT CANNOT BE REPEATED ENOUGH THAT FOUR- AND FIVE-DAY TRACK FORECASTS CAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT ERRORS...AND COMBINED WITH THE FACT THAT THE MODEL SPREAD IS STILL NOTABLE BEYOND 72 HOURS...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK.

Have a lovely weekend. Carolinas, hang on tight.
~Dewdrop