The heavens declare the glory of God;
the skies proclaim the work of his hands.
-Psalm 19:1

Do you know that God controls the clouds and makes his lightning flash?
-Job 37:15



Tuesday, March 24, 2009

Severe weather coming right up... stay tuned

Well, 11 tornado reports with injuries have been reported after yesterday's blockbuster storm outbreak. Over the next 5 days, there exists, at least, an area of slight risk for severe weather... with tornado potential for each of those days but the big event, which is earning some strong verbiage in the Hazardous Weather Outlooks (HWOs), the Area Forecast Discussions (AFDs) and the Storm Prediction Center's (SPC's) outlook, and in the forums. Alabama Mike and I have been in heavy discussion this morning, talking about what our thoughts are regarding this potentially "SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK" as Jackson, MS's National Weather Service (NWS) office has called it. Some of the wording is scary, especially so far out. For as far out as this is, Birmingham's office, has a reasonably high level of confidence that there will be tornadic thunderstorms from Wednesday through Friday night. I imagine we will see at least a moderate risk come Thursday for Friday's big event, and possibly even a high risk... and unfortunately into Friday night. I hate night events... and they are talking about some incredible rain fall totals, which would really hurt anyone's ability to see dangerous tornadoes... night and heavy precipitation are a terrible combination. It looks good that I will be able to chase Friday evening or Saturday afternoon, if the timing works out. I plan to go after this one. Each system seems to escalate to the next, one today will be followed by an even stronger upper level disturbance Wednesday-Thursday with large hail and a few tornadoes... then, they go on to describe:

AN EVEN MORE POWERFUL STORM STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS COMBINED WITH STRONG WIND SHEAR COULD SET THE STAGE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK... INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND SEVERAL TORNADOES.
The minimal MLCAPE forecast is > 1000 J/KG with dewpoints at 60°, but that is in the least aggressive model... the potential exists (per GFS) for MLCAPE in excess of 2500 J/KG and dewpoints at 70°!!! "THEN WOULD EXPECT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA (per Mississippi)." The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has said ON D4...
THIS INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE WITH STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS AND INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT TO FOSTER WIDESPREAD TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION FRI AND FRI NIGHT. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP WITHIN SYSTEM WARM SECTOR. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE...INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES.
The same is expected to continue eastward for day 5. If this system holds up to all the hype, it could very much be a storm to put down in the history books. Mike and I recalled the Enterprise, AL, scenario... Americus... Baker County, GA. If this thing comes through as all the models and forecasts would suggest, we could have some dangerously intense weather this weekend. Stay tuned. If the timing is right, I am going after it!

Currently, Mesoscale Discussions are popping up for Arkansas/Oklahoma/Missouri. It's show time.

Have a great day!
~Dewdrop

7 comments:

  1. I'm watching this closely, but my weather knowledge is still limited. What do things look like for the Carroll County (West of Atlanta) area from Thursday thru Saturday?

    Thanks for any answers, and I really enjoy your blog. Spent some time yesterday reading back a couple of pages.

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  2. Thanks, Josh.

    CCWatcher, I would expect thunderstorms Wednesday and potentially a squall line on Thursday early... but then, probably Saturday is my best guess for the big storm. Timing is the big question though... no one is really sure. Be safe and keep your weather radio on. THANKS!!!

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  3. Thanks, I will be sure to keep an eye on your blog for updates. Trying to plan ahead if I'll need to get the wife and dogs over to my parents' basement to spend Friday night and maybe a few hours on Saturday. We were hit back on Mother's Day '08, so I'm trying to avoid us being home if it happens again. The aggrevating thing is...I'd LOVE to be out chasing these daytime events but I have to make sure my wife and "kids" are safe first.

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  4. I totally understand. Keep a watch. I will do my best to post updates. I can't decide for you, but I hope you'll be safe whatever you decide... protecting your family takes precedence... hence we were actually hiding behind a mattress during our recent close call... I was not out chasing, but I don't do night storms.

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  5. Beautiful shot! Love the blue and that big puffy white cloud! Wish I could import some of the blue to Seattle! Thanks for sharing! Take care!

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  6. Nice shot! Interesting information. Very glad that I do not live in the South anymore. Seldom do we experience any of the very severe stuff that is more common down there.

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