Southeast facing a 1, 2, 3 punch of severe weather

SKY WATCH FRIDAY time! Please visit Klaus, Sandy, Ivar, Wren, Louise and Fishing Guy, the team for SKY WATCH FRIDAY (click the word to link and participate!) Thanks to Dot and Tom, who were instrumental in the success of this blogging event. You should definitely come fly with us!This is a capture of a swelling cumulus cloud... I watched as the cloud swelled and grew before my eyes, climbing vertically in a hostile atmosphere, ready to explode with thunderstorm. Here is a link to a time lapse video of a thunderstorm developing, and it shows the stages of development of a thunderstorm... from fair weather cumulus to swelling cumulus to towering cumulus/cumulus congestus, where the thunderstorm has formed. Seeing lots of these cumulus towers would indicate a great deal of instability, moisture and lift, and you can expect some thunderstorms.

Today you can expect thunderstorms if you are in the southeastern US, severe thunderstorms at that... With up to 17 tornadoes now reported from Monday's severe weather outbreak, 1 reported on Tuesday, and 6 reported yesterday (the tornadoes are the red dots on the graphic, and they happened over night, one of which being the very powerful tornado near Magee, MS, which is in the Jackson metro area, and there are injuries reported, including 2 people who were sky-lifted. As Melissa pointed out in my comments section, it looks like it was a minimal EF3 with extensive damage and unknown number of injuries... It happened while they were sleeping. Gosh, I hate night outbreaks!)... the idea of three more days of severe weather potential in the south, probably has a bunch of southerners cringing... I'm sure many are weary.

Frankly round one has actually expanded the severe zone to nearly include me (should include me overnight... sigh), and as the squall line approaches, if it maintains any structure, it will impact my area and most of Georgia. In fact, the line is just about to cross into Georgia further north of me. A tornado watch is in place through the area of the present squall and just to its east, and although the line seems to have weakened as it has entered Dewvoid territory, the tornado watch will persist for the 40% moderate chance that the area will see tornadoes. Like I said though, this is only round 1 for the south.Round 2 (above) actually includes my neck of the woods as severe weather persists in the southeastern US.

THE IMPLICATIONS OF THIS IMPULSE POTENTIALLY INCLUDE: 1) CONSIDERABLE TSTM DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING EARLY IN THE DAY OVER THE CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES WHICH WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM WARM SECTOR...AND 2) THE LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE TO THIS LEAD IMPULSE. IN OTHER WORDS...LATEST MODEL FORECASTS ALL VEER AND MIGRATE THE LLJ EWD FROM THE CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES TOWARD THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST. WHILE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE...WIND FIELDS WILL BE RELATIVELY STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS TORNADOES. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT IMPACTS THIS INITIAL STORM ACTIVITY WILL HAVE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WARM SECTOR.

LLJ IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN FRI NIGHT FROM NEAR THE MS RIVER EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL GULF STATES AND NWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. AS SUCH...KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS... THE CORRIDOR ALONG AND JUST TO THE S/SE OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK WILL REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR LONGER-LIVED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES /SOME POSSIBLY STRONG/. THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES SPREADING EWD INTO MIDDLE TN AND AL BY 28/12Z.

DUE TO THE CONCERNS AND UNCERTAINTIES LISTED IN THIS DISCUSSION...A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED. BUT...AN UPGRADE IS STILL POSSIBLE IN LATER OUTLOOKS ONCE FINER-SCALE DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

Then, it almost immediately feeds into round 3. (above)

...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...
MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS/DYNAMIC COOLING MENTIONED ABOVE TO SUPPORT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION OVER A LARGE REGION E OF THE MS RIVER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS AND DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL FAVOR MULTIPLE LINE SEGMENTS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/BOWS CAPABLE OF POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND TORNADOES. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF GA/N FL INTO THE CAROLINAS AND VA ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SURGING THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS. WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN VERY STRONG WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS/BOWS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.

AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK MAY WELL BE REQUIRED IN LATER OUTLOOKS ONCE FORECAST DETAILS BECOME CLEARER. (This is Saturday, they are talking about upping to a moderate risk for severe, and guess who is planning to go storm chasing??? )

Should be a wild next few days.

9:43EDT: Looks like Enterprise, AL is under fire with a tornado warning in that area. They suffered a blow two years ago on March 1, 2007, when an EF4 caused extensive damage and stole some lives.

Incidentally, the slight risk today has expanded since my earlier post... I am officially within an area of slight risk for severe weather. Much of Georgia has been included in the area.

Thanks to the Weather Channel for sending me a link to the preliminary report from Jackson, MS, regarding the "AT LEAST AN EF3" tornado that ripped through Magee, MS very early this morning, leaving many injured, some seriously, some people missing, documents moved to other counties and dozens of structures damaged or destroyed.

Update on Enterprise, one of three wind reports today:

ENTERPRISE COFFEE COUNTY AL
SEVERAL REPORTS OF DAMAGE AROUND ENTERPRISE. SEVERAL TELEPHONE POLES DOWN...TWO CHICKEN HOUSES SIGNIFICANTLY DAMAGED. ONE TRAILER WITH ROOF DAMAGE.

Stay tuned.
~Dewdrop