Tornadoes in the Forecast... for Arklatexoma... (doesn't sound good, does it?)

Well, there is no question about it... the cure for SDS has arrived. Yes folks, we are smack dab in the middle of severe weather season. Now, if I could just make it out west for a little chasing of the storms, I'd be a happy camper. No such luck though. My schedule is booked solid for the near future. I am hoping the current trend continues into May when I "MIGHT" be able to mosey my way out there for a chasecation. I was a little surprised to see that the SPC has forecasted an area of moderate risk for severe weather, not just for tomorrow for parts of Texas and Oklahoma, but also for Thursday for almost all of Arkansas... wow, day 3 moderate...

For Wednesday... MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG. THE SUPERCELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES... A FEW POTENTIALLY STRONG

Very strong wording and a definite threat of an outbreak. I imagine the southwest Oklahoma/northwest Texas region will be swarming with storm chasers tomorrow, sort of how my drive-way is swarming with mosquitoes as I sit and wait for the bus in the mornings... vicious beasts...

For Thursday... DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG/LONG-TRACKED. WITH 100+ KT AT 500 MB AND 50-70 KT AT 850 MB...WILL FAVOR BOTH SUPERCELLS AND THE EVOLUTION OF QUASI-LINEAR BOW ECHOES ACROSS A BROAD PORTION OF THE ARKLATEX/MID SOUTH NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS... A HIGH SRH ENVIRONMENT AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT AN APPRECIABLE RISK FOR TORNADOES... SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG/LONG TRACKED.

Prior to this anticipated tornado outbreak, the tornado trend for the year (only updated for tornado reports--not to be confused with confirmed tornadoes and generally reflects an amplified total--through April 2, which means that number for the year-to-date tornado reports is understated through today by 26 tornado reports!!)Still a shocking graphic, but when you add to it that there is a moderate risk of severe weather during the next two days, it adds to the thought that we are experiencing a phenomenal severe weather season this year. We're well on our way to a historic year!

I should mention that today is the 10 year anniversary of the "Birmingham Tornado of April 1998". On this date, 10 years ago an F5 tornado devastated the Jefferson County, Birmingham, AL area, killing 32 people and injuring over 120 people. The 31 mile track of this ferocious tornado was impressive, but it wasn't alone in its destruction... over the period from April 6-9, 1998, 62 tornadoes were confirmed within that system over several states, taking the lives of 41 people in Alabama and Georgia. I find it interesting that in 1956, the same area experienced another catastrophic F5 tornado. I also found this interesting...:

More than 1,400 tornadoes were reported in 1998, the second most on record. The second biggest season of tornadoes on record was 2003. 1998 and 2003 also were some of the busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons in recent memory with 14 and 16 named storms, respectively.

With that kind of track record, I can't help but wonder about the upcoming hurricane season. Yikes.

Well, that all for my history lesson today.

Have a lovely day,
~Dewdrop