Another tropical disturbance ready to roll...

Yesterday, the little area of clustered storms off the Leeward Islands was given a low probability of development into anything significant. This morning, all that has changed. That area ow has a high probability of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.If this system develops into a named storm, he would earn the name Danny. As the current shear environment settles some, the environment will become much more favorable still for the development of this tropical wave. As such, Air Force Reconnaissance will investigate things this afternoon. I bet they find him "depressed". Incidentally, he does have great satellite presentation and appears to be at the spot where major Hurricane Bill just past by less than a week ago. Looking at the graphic, you may have noticed the other area highlighted off the coast of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. There is little chance that that area of disturbed weather will gather sufficient organization to earn an official title before it moves inland today.

I was just looking at the reports for yesterday, which were less than exciting, when another graphic caught my eye... check out the cumulative severe weather reports so far for 2009...Red dots represent tornado report, blue signify wind reports and green dots are hail reports. The 2009 map seems rather blue, wouldn't you say (perhaps a little "depressed", like 92L. Incidentally, I think 92L might skip TD 5 and go straight to TS Danny)??? Well, here is the 2008 graphic for comparison (remember 2008 was a wild tornado ravaged year)...You can click on the various tabs for specific reports.

Have an effervescent day!
~Dewdrop

Hurricane Bill left his mark...

It's so incredibly unfortunate to me that despite ample warnings, plenty of media coverage... that someone, let alone an innocent child, had their life taken by Hurricane Bill. As it turns out, a small group of people were gathered for a party at Acadia National Park, gathered on the rock cliffs that hug the coastline in Maine. Well, despite knowledge of a close passing hurricane, despite tropical storm warning, heavy surf warning, dangerous rip current warnings, these people thought they were safe picnicing atop the cliff. Well, when you combine a nearby passing large hurricane, dangerous swells, and high tide, you have a potentially life-threatening situation. Reports indicate that waves were between 12 and 18' high, that they were crashing over the cliff and actually pulled several of the people there into the water.

LARGE SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF CANADA LATER TODAY AND SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

NBC is referring to it as a rogue wave, but I don't see how it can be considered rogue... there was a doggone hurricane off the coast! It was a dangerous and very likely wave. The hurricane passed within 200 miles of the coast, a hurricane with tropical storm force winds extending out 300+ miles. In my opinion, the party should have been rescheduled or relocated. My heart goes out to the family and friends of the small child whose life was taken.The extratropical storm Bill is now moving out into the open waters of the Atlantic, after making landfall in Newfoundland.

My wonderful groom and I had a wonderful weekend, visiting our dear friends and his old college campus. What an incredible visit we had! First, we drove up Georgia, into Alabama and stopped in at my wonderful groom's university...My wonderful groom loves the feel of the grass there... I can see why!!Leave it to me to find a weathervane in all that...Then, we visited some friends over lunch at Milo's Hamburgers (which was causing my wonderful groom to drool all week long), where they have famous tea and bbq sauce smothered burgers... messy, but very yummy. We had some great conversation with 3 of my wonderful groom's college friends and one of my middle and high school friends (she left before I remembered to take pics-- sad face... no worries, I'll catch her next month on our girls weekend!). It was really terrific catching up and sharing stories with our friends... a true outpouring of love. Splendid. Before leaving town, we picked up a treat for our Jasper, AL hosts (we weren't guests, we were family)... the man of the house has a sweet spot for a specific coconut cream pie from a particular establishment. I must admit, it was pretty rockin... In Birmingham, we got some unknown-to-GPS directions to the house via Corridor X, the future I-22. It was a fast, easy straight shot. We arrived in the late afternoon, and I made fast friends with my wonderful groom's dear college pals. Honestly, it was like I had known R's wife A, all my life. We must be kindred spirits. It was wonderful. We had such deep and meaningful conversations, and I felt so comfortable and welcome in their beautiful home! They fed us wonderful meals, so we treated them to a wonderful yummy Italian outing, complete with dough-nadoes (thanks, B!!!) Then, the grown ups had a wonderful time enjoying the Wii. My wonderful groom and I, with the help of the charming children made Mii's for one another. My dear kindred spirit and I had a blast racing cows and other such things, while the men made excuses for less than desired golf scores. LOL! We introduced the whole family to the joys of jeep riding. What a blast! After a brief and non-lethal encounter with a "cow killer ant".

Velvet ants are not aggressive and will try to escape from you. The females have a very painful sting if handled. The name "Cow Killer Ant" was given to the velvet ant because of the reputation of the female's sting. It is said that the sting is so painful that it could kill a cow. This handsome insect does make a sound (especially when stepped on) but the squeaks of the cow killer ant would hardly be heard over the painful screams, if the person stepping on the wasp was barefoot.
~source

We hated to leave this wonderful visit, but all weekends must come to an end, so we headed out, fortunately, taking an adventurous route back, which allowed my wonderful groom a visit with his kids.

Have a fantabulous day!!!
~Dewdrop

Tornadoes ravage the plains... in August??

SKY WATCH FRIDAY time! I might not have time to respond to you, but I will try my best to visit!!!
Our hosts: Klaus Sandy Ivar Wren Louise Fishing Guy

Thanks, also,to Dot and Tom, who were instrumental in the success of this blogging event. You should definitely come fly with us!This is a capture of what our skies are generally looking like by early to mid afternoon here these days... We have had some amazingly brilliant blue skies with splatterings of clouds that build and boil to generate those late afternoon boomers that are so common in south Georgia summers.

Well, though it was pretty mild and normal summer-like thunderstorms here, yesterday was a banner severe weather day, especially for an August day!! As a cold front creeps its way across the CONUS, we watched as severe weather became the top story throughout the plains (especially Minnesota, Illinois and Iowa), with the big story coming out of Minnesota, specifically downtown Minneapolis, where an apparent tornado ravaged its way through downtown, destroying structures, downing trees... insanity. All in all, we saw 18 tornado reports and a total of 195 severe weather reports. My weather radio actually went off one time, alerting us of a severe storm to our east, which appears to have generated some severe wind reports in north Florida. Our company (Mini-Dew's friend), heard the blaring EAS tone and asked, "WHAT IS THAT?!" sigh... you have no weather radio?? All we got out of that was a bit of rain and some gorgeous lightning, which I was too busy with company to shoot. So, what does this whole tornado outbreak mean...? Well, this year has actually been a below average year for storm reports and tornadoes. Last year, an exceptionally active year, most likely raised the average quite a bit, so we are probably on target for "normal".I love the site that the image above links to... it's a great tornado trend resource. Unfortunately for the people over a large part of the eastern US, it looks like things might get severely active again today. If you fall within the green outlined area, be especially mindful of rapidly changing conditions.

Now, looking at the Tropics, we see that Hurricane Bill (the only show in town), actually lost some of his oomph. Now, downgraded to a category 3, still powerful, yet slightly less symmetrical, Hurricane Bill is a major hurricane most likely destined for a life at sea. He ran into a bit of westerly shear overnight, which slowed his winds down a bit, but as the shear settles, and with a maintained pressure, we could expect to see him ramp up speed again, through the course of today. He has begun a slight turn to the northwest, which is falling in line with what the models have consistently boasted about Hurricane Bill's course. In fact, a great degree of uncertainty arises with the expected trajectory of Bill after 72 hours...

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BILL WILL PROBABLY NOT TURN AS SHARPLY BETWEEN 72-96 HR AS IMPLIED BY THE TRACK GRAPHIC...AND THUS IS LIKELY TO PASS CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND THAN THE GRAPHIC WOULD SUGGEST.

Have a stupendous day!!
~Dewdrop

Tornado strikes Beaumont, Texas... and Bill ramps up in the Atlantic

Andy Garza For the Beaumont Enterprise
The tornado forms near a Wal-Mart in Beaumont Tuesday afternoon. ~source

Well, by now, most of you have probably heard of the freak EF-1 tornado that struck the Kohl's, Wal-Mart and Parkdale Mall in Beaumont, Texas, tracking 100 yards wide and 1 mile long... tossing cars around like they were toys, injuring 10 people.

The Beaumont Enterprise reports in its online edition that the roof of the Kohl's has collapsed.
~source

Unfortunately, not only was there no tornado warning, there wasn't even a tornado watch, heck, not even a severe thunderstorm watch. This thing spun up out of nowhere, and the radar didn't really suggest such a thing might happen. Pictures of some damage. Hopefully, the injuries weren't life-threatening and people will recover quickly. It must have been terrifying.

Missouri appears to be under fire today for a relatively strong likelihood of tornadoes. Consider this your warning... If you are in the green, expect that anything can happen.

The now category 4, likely fish-storm, Hurricane Bill (isn't he lovely?!, image links to a loop), is a big story of the morning. Haven't strengthened in an environment of heavy shear, and with a shear settling forecasted, conditions are definitely favorable for further intensification, we can expect the 11AM update to show likely strengthening. TWC, this morning, reported Hurricane Hunter dropsonde reading of 158mph winds in the eyewall of Hurricane Bill... just an FYI, that is Category 5. Currently, the trajectory has actually westward some, to actually include Cape Cod, Massachusetts within the cone. Unfortunately, that westward jog of the forecast track is not good news for the east coast. It suggests that the ridge isn't breaking down as hard and fast as the models originally foretold. The models do still consistently show a turn to the north... How about this wording...

A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD CAUSE BILL TO RECURVE NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD.

After 72 hours, the models disagree on what will happen... some keeping Hurricane Bill a fish, bringing him sharply out to sea... others suggesting a hint of a New England impact. I will certainly be keeping my eye on Bill. (wink)

Have a tremendous day!
~Dewdrop

Hurricane Bill, to be or not to be... a fish!

Well, with Claudette dissipated into a mere memory, and Ana fizzling to just a low chance of something happening, after a windy rainstorm in the eastern Caribbean, we set our focus on the forecasted major fish... That's right, we expect now category 2 Hurricane Bill to amount to a major fish storm, meaning that we anticipate that Hurricane Bill will strengthen to at least a category 3 hurricane, and will never make landfall. We had a similar situation with Big Bad Bertha, remember her? Well, no you wouldn't, would you...? She was an amazingly beautiful hurricane last year, fish storm... but she lived a LONG life, and during her lifetime, attained the highest hurricane rating, category 5! At least over the past 12 hours, Hurricane Bill has actually started to look like a hurricane (click on the image for a loop), complete with solid eye, more symmetric convection and a very decent size. Yes, as Bill makes his way across the Atlantic, pulling in all available energy and convection, he will become quite a force to be reckoned with... the eye is actually pretty huge right now. The eyewall is tight. Generally, a larger eye does not help strengthen a storm.The eye of a hurricane is formed by rapidly sinking air, and the eyewall contains the strongest winds of the storm. Follow this link to learn more about hurricanes.

Exciting stuff, huh?
~Dewdrop

Hurricane Bill looking to strengthen to a major hurricane after Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall on the Florida panhandle

Well, Tropical Ana is still barely holding on in the Caribbean, though she is expected to dissipate sometime soon. Bill, this morning, was upgraded to a Hurricane. Yes, folks, Hurricane Bill is the first (finally) hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season. Cane chasers everywhere are closely watching models to see what Hurricane Bill might do in the coming days. The current trajectory puts Hurricane Bill between Bermuda and the US east coast, that is highly dependent on the subtropical ridge in the central Atlantic, which is currently steering Hurricane Bill west northwestward, breaking down during the next 48 hours, allowing that hurricane to shoot more northwestward. One model is holding on to a more southern solution, which has created a shadow of a doubt, actually shifting the official trajectory slightly more southward. Currently, he is hot on the heels of where, now Tropical Depression Ana picked back up after a couple of days rest. Her original path took her where they are suggesting Bill might go, but she didn't end up heading that way, at all. So, really, anything can happen. I will keep you posted. Currently, Hurricane Bill is working to get his act together, wrapping some heavy southern convection around to give himself some more symmetry. He's looking pretty.

ALL INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES A CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW BILL TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE.

On to Claudette, Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall as a moderate tropical storm at 12:25AM, just southeast of Fort Walton Beach. With much of the concentrated convection remaining off shore, they experienced only some wind, power outages and rain. Claudette was even kind enough to carry with her some sand... no beach erosion. Bonus!

I should mantion our game night on Saturday. We had a great time with Annie and her family, learning how to severely inconvencience her neighbor... then, I taught them all the fine art of SPOONS! I am now referred to as the Spoon Nazi... but check out the expression on my wonderful groom's face... Unfortunately, Annie's little girl is at the dr's office now in a mask after a sudden onset of Swine flu-like symptoms, Sunday morning... our second exposure in as many weeks. It's running wild in south Georgia.

Aside from that, I hope you all have a splendiferous day!
~Dewdrop

The tropics are ALIVE!!!

Claudette arrived on the scene, while we were away at church... go figure. So we have Tropical Depression Ana, which Rick had his money on... cough cough. We have Tropical Storm Bill...

...BILL LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY...

Incidentally, the forecast for the soon to be Hurricane Bill is pretty exciting. If he stays a fish, it shouldn't matter, but if he doesn't take the hook to the northwest, we could be dealing with a major hurricane on the east coast somewhere...

ALL RELIABLE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE...WITH THE GFDL/HWRF/GFDN MODELS FORECASTING BILL TO REACH CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH BY DAY 5.

... and is on course for fishdom, unless he makes contact with the coast further up the way. Of course, that was Ana's original track when she was a TD out that way. Then, we have Tropical Storm Claudette... on course for... me?! What? Well, she's not really headed my way, but what on earth... TS out of nowhere. Anyone remember Humberto???

Well, wow. I guess I should stay close to the computer. My tracking chart is going haywire!

Oh, and check out Claudette...We actually have her outer bands here. Wild.

Have an eccentric day!
~Dewdrop

Ahh, the lovely skies

SKY WATCH FRIDAY time! Though Obama-madness has died down some in my neck of the woods, I am still pretty swamped with stimulus yuck, so I might not get a chance to say hi. Please don't take offense. Thanks for the visit anyhow. Our hosts: Klaus Sandy Ivar Wren Louise Fishing Guy

Thanks, also,to Dot and Tom, who were instrumental in the success of this blogging event. You should definitely come fly with us!

I have spoken about crepuscular rays often. They are what look like rays of light peaking through breaks in the clouds, which are actually light bouncing off dirty particles in the air. Well, what happens when the cloud actually obstructs the light...? Well, you get cloud shadows, and I have talked about those before, but I have never captured as nice of an example as I did yesterday.

Yesterday, I noted that the Storm Prediction Center had issued a mesoscale discussion regarding a likelihood of severe weather in my neck of the woods... they outlined an area that could expect damaging wind and hail. The area that was expecting to get some action is identified here to the right. Notice the storm reports from yesterday... notice any here??? ... or anywhere in the mesoscale discussion area, for that matter????No, I think not! We did have some beautiful clouds, really amazing towers, as the instability revealed itself, but check out the ridiculous radar for yesterday, which shows a clear depiction of the weatherless void that exists around me (the less than fondly dubbed, Dewvoid). Locally, all I saw was a little lightning, nothing happened here... judging by the lightning show, it looked like it all happened north of here, in Meso Mike's neck of the woods. Incidentally, his mom told me she thought it was active down our way. The buck tends to stop at her son... sigh. Here are some amazing sky shots from yesterday though.



It really was spectacular with the striking blue contrasting with the brilliant white climbing desperately to its highest height. I wonder if any of them produced hail. Cumulonimbus clouds are exciting and exotically beautiful to me. That last one would be considered a Cumulonimbus capillatus, which is a cumulonimbus cloud with cirrus-like, fibrous-edged top. Oh, I didn't even mention the hail/rain shaft that I captured. Looks like it could have been hail, but I'm not too sure.

You remember me talking yesterday about the Tropical Depression 2, which prematurely was being called Ana... well, that is typically the kiss of death to a tropical system. I think it's Ma Nature's way of saying... "So, you think you know me, do you? Well, I'll show you..." Check out the image to the upper left... under the Lx, do you see anything...? I think not. The circulation has lost an essential characteristic of tropical cyclone-ness... convection. All the moisture has been dried out of the low pressure system, which will most likely suffocate the system causing it to vanish into nothingness... however, they are still thinking TD2 will become Tropical Storm Ana before eventually dissipating. The next area of concern would be that juicy area off the coast of Africa. The models are still carrying it all the way to the US in about 10 days, as a tropical cyclone. Will it be Ana? Will it be Bill? Who knows??? Stay tuned.

Have a fantabulous day!
~Dewdrop