Historic flooding event in process on the mid-Atlantic coast

SKY WATCH FRIDAY time! Welcome all sky fans!!! I truly appreciate your visit and comments. I might not have time to respond to you, but I will try my best to visit!!!

Our hosts: Klaus Sandy Sylvia Wren Louise Fishing Guy

Thanks, also,to Dot and Tom, who were instrumental in the success of this blogging event. You should definitely come fly with us!
By now, most of you have heard of the huge coastal storm that is inundating the mid-Atlantic coast, most likely causing a historic flooding event, as the remnants of Ida merge with a high pressure system, creating a powerful pressure gradient, which is currently generating tropical storm force winds, causing ferocious waves, dropping buckets of rain and raising water levels, leading to flooding. The graphic the the left demonstrates the warnings and advisories being issued by the National Weather Service. You can click on the image for an updated depiction. Currently, there is flooding along the coast of North Carolina and Virginia from the surge combined with high tide overnight. Unfortunately, we expect that trend to move up the coast as subsequent high tides occur and the very slow storm motion, which in and of itself is going to cause rainfall totals 3x greater than a typical total rainfall for a wet November. Almost 10 inches have already been reported in some places.Precipitation

This system is offering basically the most destructive elements of a hurricane, without it being a hurricane. The areas affected will have flooding far inland due to excessive rainfall, which will be bad, but as the water level of the coastal water rises (storm surge--the pressure gradient will be drawing in storm surge), the waves grow in height, and high tide approaches again (4-5PM today), we can expect a devastating flooding event.

THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY MORNING.

Please join me in praying for all those who will be impacted (or have already been impacted) by the system formerly known as Ida, now just a no-name storm.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN™

God bless those involved in the coastal storm.

3:20PM EST Update: Unfortunately, the remnant low of Ida has aligned with high tide to create a nightmare scenario. Fellow storm chaser and Southern Weather Brigade member, Mikey is located about 1/4 mile from the coast in Norfolk. Please include his family and friends in your prayers.

~Dewdrop

What's Ida going to do???

Yes, the now Hurricane Ida is bearing down on the US Gulf Coast, losing intensity as she makes her way toward us. She has lost some of her beautiful (yes, I am weird) structure. She has lost a tremendous amount of symmetry and intensity over this morning. Hurricane Ida reached category 2 strength yesterday, and as she has journeyed northward into an area of cooler waters and a more hostile environment for such tropical activity, we see her losing structure and strength. As of this morning's most recent advisory, Hurricane Ida is a category 1 hurricane, with her sites set on the Pensacola/Mobile area for a full impact tonight.With Ida rapidly losing intensity, the big issue is less where she'll hit directly, but how much rain she carries with her, and her interaction and absorption with the front now making its way across the US. The eastern US will most likely all be impacted in some way by the now Hurricane Ida. Granted, I don't think it will be nearly as dramatic as TWC is making it out to be. Given the timing, it doesn't look like I will be chasing this November hurricane. If only it was moving in this weekend...

Have a great day!
~Dewdrop

What's in store for Ida?

Regarding the now, Tropical Depression Ida, currently flooding out Honduras and after slamming into Nicaragua as a hurricane, this is what the models see as the potential trajectory for her future. I am bothered by the westward training, as I don't really think that is a realistic path...

THE INTERACTION OF IDA WITH THAT TROUGH IS CAUSING A WIDE VARIETY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS... RANGING FROM A FASTER CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LANDFALL TO IDA REMAINING SEPARATE FROM THE TROUGH AND STAYING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD SINCE THE LAST RUN...CLIMATOLOGY AND THE FORECAST STRONG UPPER- LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SUGGEST THE EASTERN SOLUTIONS ARE LIKELY CLOSER TO REALITY.

... but neither does the National Hurricane Center, who have a cone extending into my neck of the woods.Which might put it in the... big bend of Florida. For me, that would make it a chaseable event. I can get to the big bend in time to intercept, but I can't make it there Thursday... sigh. With the frontal boundary bearing in, though, a greater likelihood (in my very strong and amateur opinion) would be closer to Tampa... as a strong TS or extratropical storm.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON HOW MUCH INTENSIFICATION TO EXPECT WITH IDA. THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWS A RATHER MODEST AMOUNT OF RESTRENGTHENING... WHILE THE REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS SUGGEST THAT IDA WILL BECOME A
HURRICANE AGAIN.

This is how she currently looks over Honduras, as she grasps for her place over water.That's Ida.

Have a great weekend!!!
~Dewdrop

Hurricane Ida arrives in the Caribbean

SKY WATCH FRIDAY time! Welcome all sky fans!!! I truly appreciate your visit and comments. I might not have time to respond to you, but I will try my best to visit!!!

Our hosts: Klaus Sandy Sylvia Wren Louise Fishing Guy

Thanks, also,to Dot and Tom, who were instrumental in the success of this blogging event. You should definitely come fly with us!Well, with all the beautiful skies I've been having lately, it surprises me that I didn't have any current pics that I haven't already shared, so I hit the archive. This is a wonderful winter sunset back from 2007. There are several things about this image that I really love. 1. The color, the golden amber glow was a wonderful way to end the workday. 2. The way the sun appears as a brilliant ball of fire, close enough to reach out and touch. 3. The way it appears to be melting the sky beneath with is golden yellow whirling below and the coral flash wafting above. 4. The golden glowing rim of cloud... telling me some clouds have a golden lining. 5. The way the light of the setting sun hits the contrail in the upper left of the shot, glowing brilliantly back at the beaming sun. 6. The trees showing their vulnerability as they lay barren against the cold winter, awaiting with eagerness, the newness that arrives in spring.

Lo and behold, we've got the 3rd hurricane of the Atlantic Basin's 2009 season. Yes, you read that correctly, here we are November 5th, and we are just on number 3. Can you name them? The first made landfall in Newfoundland, and actually took the life of a little girl in Maine, and that was Hurricane Bill (what a name!). The other was Hurricane Fred. Remember that one? No? Well, he hung out around the Cape Verde Islands, but he did not make landfall. Both reached major hurricane status during their lives. Now, we have Hurricane Ida. She formed off the coast of Nicaragua, and has (as of the most recent advisory) made landfall in that treacherous mountainous country, Nicaragua. When Hurricane Ida emerges on the other side, she is expected to gain strength over water... and then emerge into the Gulf of Mexico. All Gulf coast interests should be keeping their eyes on Ida. We will plan an intercept if she makes it up during next weekend. It's too far out to know how the models will hold up. What the models are saying...

Have a blessed day!
~Dewdrop