Historic flooding event in process on the mid-Atlantic coast

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By now, most of you have heard of the huge coastal storm that is inundating the mid-Atlantic coast, most likely causing a historic flooding event, as the remnants of Ida merge with a high pressure system, creating a powerful pressure gradient, which is currently generating tropical storm force winds, causing ferocious waves, dropping buckets of rain and raising water levels, leading to flooding. The graphic the the left demonstrates the warnings and advisories being issued by the National Weather Service. You can click on the image for an updated depiction. Currently, there is flooding along the coast of North Carolina and Virginia from the surge combined with high tide overnight. Unfortunately, we expect that trend to move up the coast as subsequent high tides occur and the very slow storm motion, which in and of itself is going to cause rainfall totals 3x greater than a typical total rainfall for a wet November. Almost 10 inches have already been reported in some places.Precipitation

This system is offering basically the most destructive elements of a hurricane, without it being a hurricane. The areas affected will have flooding far inland due to excessive rainfall, which will be bad, but as the water level of the coastal water rises (storm surge--the pressure gradient will be drawing in storm surge), the waves grow in height, and high tide approaches again (4-5PM today), we can expect a devastating flooding event.

THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY MORNING.

Please join me in praying for all those who will be impacted (or have already been impacted) by the system formerly known as Ida, now just a no-name storm.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN™

God bless those involved in the coastal storm.

3:20PM EST Update: Unfortunately, the remnant low of Ida has aligned with high tide to create a nightmare scenario. Fellow storm chaser and Southern Weather Brigade member, Mikey is located about 1/4 mile from the coast in Norfolk. Please include his family and friends in your prayers.

~Dewdrop

Could we have another "perfect storm"???

If you've seen "The Perfect Storm", you are familiar with the set-up I am about to describe, which is actually the set-up which could occur on our east coast today and tomorrow. Yesterday, we saw Hurricane Ida, become a Tropical Storm and make landfall in Alabama. A slight surge occurred causing some flooding. The moisture was pulled away from the center of circulation as the system became extra-tropical. The remnants of extra-tropical Depression Ida continue to push east, even this morning, as a significant low, being pushed off shore by a high pressure to the northwest.Here's the problem, sitting off the coast is an area of low pressure, which has a low likelihood of development, but could merge with the remnants of Ida to form a powerful low pressure system, as it continues to move to the northwest.Hypothetically, as the newly merged low pressure system (with its counter clockwise motion) were to move to the northwest and interact with the high pressure system (with its clockwise motion), a pressure gradient would set up. Link
The pressure gradient would force the air through the two fronts amplifying the impact. Back in 1991, when this occurred, it was referred to as "the perfect storm" or "no-name storm" or "The Halloween Nor'easter of 1991.

The 1991 Perfect Storm, also known as the No-Name Storm, was an unusual nor’easter which was extratropical, and absorbed one hurricane, and ultimately evolved into a small hurricane within an extratropical system late in its life cycle. The initial area of low pressure formed across Indiana before moving offshore of Atlantic Canada, where the cyclone reached its peak intensity. The unnamed hurricane of 1991 was the last tropical cyclone of the 1991 Atlantic hurricane season, and its fourth hurricane. By November 2, Atlantic Canada experienced the effects of a landfalling tropical storm. Damage totaled $208 million (1991 USD)[1] and the death toll climbed to 12 people including 6 onboard the Andrea Gail and one Air National Guard pararescue jumper, TSgt Arden "Rick" Smith. Most of the damage occurred while the storm was extratropical.

The Halloween Nor'easter of 1991, as an extratropical cyclone (today's case would be Ida), with its associated high winds from the pressure gradient between the high to its northeast and its low pressure center (sound familiar???), created large waves. Canadian buoy 44137 reported a wave height of 100.7 feet October 30. NOAA buoy 44011 reported maximum sustained winds of 49 knots (56 mph) with gusts to 65 kt (75 mph) and a significant wave height (average height of the highest waves) of 39 feet. (The central Atlantic coast of the US is under an imminent threat.)

It lashed northeastern U.S. with a storm tide of more than 13 ft above a storm surge of approximately 5 ft, and piled on top of that 30 ft waves. The worst of the storm stayed offshore. Duxbury Beach, Massachusetts had gusts up to 85 mph.

The "perfect storm" moniker was coined by author and journalist Sebastian Junger after a conversation with NWS Boston Deputy Meteorologist Robert Case in which Case described the convergence of weather conditions as being "perfect" for the formation of such a storm.

Well, here comes the potential for the perfect conditions again. It could happen similar to the events of 1991. Wouldn't that be interesting??? Regardless, the shores of North Carolina, South Carolina and Virginia can expect flooding and wind.

Have a blessed day!
~Dewdrop

Ida downgraded to extra-tropical as she moves ashore

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA MADE ITS FIRST LANDFALL AROUND 540 AM CST...1140 UTC... ON DAUPHIN ISLAND ALABAMA... WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR.

THE CENTER OF IDA MADE ITS SECOND LANDFALL AROUND 700 AM CST... 1300 UTC... JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF BON SECOUR ALABAMA.

Fortunately for us here in south Georgia, a great deal of the associated moisture was quickly lifted up to our north into that frontal boundary. North Alabama and Georgia were both inundated with heavy rain as the racing outer bands of Ida were ripped away from the core circulation. Fortunately, the fast movement should help in preventing too much horrific flooding. There is a band currently training over a good part of south Georgia. I am expecting that to move my way and cause a mess down here, but it shouldn't be too terribly bad. In any case, Turn Around, Don't Drown™. That line is actually presenting itself well on satellite. The now, extra-tropical Depression Ida is expected to traipse across the south and eject on the east coast and perhaps head south toward the Bahamas.The models pretty much look like spaghetti at this point, so it's anyone's guess. I like the one that has it doing a loop-de-loop in West Virginia and then racing out into the Atlantic. I think the models pushing it southward are accurate. The National Hurricane Center shared this suspicion and have decided on this as their official forecast.It looks like a wet day for most of Georgia.

Looky, looky, is there more on the horizon...? (Not likely!)Have a beautiful day!
~Dewdrop

What's in store for Ida?

Regarding the now, Tropical Depression Ida, currently flooding out Honduras and after slamming into Nicaragua as a hurricane, this is what the models see as the potential trajectory for her future. I am bothered by the westward training, as I don't really think that is a realistic path...

THE INTERACTION OF IDA WITH THAT TROUGH IS CAUSING A WIDE VARIETY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS... RANGING FROM A FASTER CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LANDFALL TO IDA REMAINING SEPARATE FROM THE TROUGH AND STAYING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD SINCE THE LAST RUN...CLIMATOLOGY AND THE FORECAST STRONG UPPER- LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SUGGEST THE EASTERN SOLUTIONS ARE LIKELY CLOSER TO REALITY.

... but neither does the National Hurricane Center, who have a cone extending into my neck of the woods.Which might put it in the... big bend of Florida. For me, that would make it a chaseable event. I can get to the big bend in time to intercept, but I can't make it there Thursday... sigh. With the frontal boundary bearing in, though, a greater likelihood (in my very strong and amateur opinion) would be closer to Tampa... as a strong TS or extratropical storm.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON HOW MUCH INTENSIFICATION TO EXPECT WITH IDA. THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWS A RATHER MODEST AMOUNT OF RESTRENGTHENING... WHILE THE REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS SUGGEST THAT IDA WILL BECOME A
HURRICANE AGAIN.

This is how she currently looks over Honduras, as she grasps for her place over water.That's Ida.

Have a great weekend!!!
~Dewdrop