Someone missed the mark...

Uh oh, looks like someone missed the mark... For an outlook that excluded North Carolina ... it sure is interesting that over half the 19 tornado reports today occurred in NC. Yep, someone was asleep at the wheel, not even a slight risk... not even in the ball park. Yikes. It's not finished yet... the big event has yet to come. This will be a rough night, and where the forecast was looking at MS/AL, I am thinking more like AL/GA. Not good. The tornado watches have been expanded into a large portion of Alabama. Not good.

~Dew

Springlike winter storm...

[Image credit: AP photo of damage in Lone Grove, OK] I was blown away yesterday by the impressive radar presence that the supercells in Oklahoma had. They had classic hook appearance in most cases, and were producing significant wall clouds, hail and tornadoes. What really blew me away was that this line was training over the same area over and over. As one supercell moved on to the next area, another took it's place. Tornado sirens blaring time and time again as deadly and destructive tornadoes dropped in a game of Russian roullette with the ground below. Each of those supercells could have dropped something. It really is amazing that there were not more reports. It was amazing to watch the tornado in Edmond, Oklahoma (near Oklahoma City), to hear about cells near Yukon, Lake Aluma, Union City, Moore, Meridian, Guthrie, Langston, Perkins and Stillwater and cells developed out of nowhere in those same spot.

OHP Trooper Bryant Harris, who lives in Lone Grove, “There’s nothing left ... twisted metal, cars turned upside down, cars in trees.” ~source

Sadly, with 8 confirmed deaths and more possible. It was a horrific storm that raged through last night. Thoughts and prayers to those folks.

Thanks to Mikey, who sent me a link to a video by TornadoVideo.net of

Stream 1 intercepted several supercells including one tornado warned storm near Yukon, ok. This storm had an incredible wall cloud, and showed rapid rotation. Also shown is the hail covered countryside near Guthrie, OK, created from several training supercells throughout the afternoon.

It's a cool video.

Currently, I am supporting Alabama Mike is under a tornado watch and is chasing a severe warned cell that is approaching him.This is the base of the remnants from yesterday's storm event. It does have a slight risk for severe weather associated with it, and at the moment, it appears to be bowing slightly where he currently is (the red square): ... and he is reporting strong wind gusting around 30 or perhaps over 40 pushing 50mph from the south southwest. The current captures are starting to show some hooky like feature in the radar.
11:56AM:His line looks to have lined out just before reaching him, which explains the wind. The upper segments of the line, have some embedded tornado warned supercells. One of those tornado warned cells looks trained on Tennessee Mike. Super fast moving stuff, too. Storm movement at 71knots!!! Holy guacamole!
12:26PM Mike is racing (within the posted AND BLOWN OVER) speed limit sign. Seriously, the 70mph speed limit sign has been blown over in the what he estimates at 70mph oops 50mph gusts! I think a special exception should be made to allow you to race to outrun a storm that's going faster than you, but as I found out in Nebraska, no such exceptions are made. Be safe, Mike!
12:33PM Mike is setting up to watch this cell roll in...He is in a gorgeous spot overlooking Huntville from a mountain top...This is what he's looking at...12:43PMHe sees a wall of rain in the distance.
Now 12:48PM, another tornado warning headed Tennessee Mike's way.1:00PM: He is looking at what appears to be a low shelf cloud.With crazy wind!
1:05PM: He sees mammatus like clouds under the approaching cell coming in out of his southwest.Have a great day!
~Dewdrop

Moderate risk for Severe Weather in Arklatex

Well, today's the day! Looks like we are facing the first severe weather outbreak of the season! The spotter chatter is going crazy with a moderate risk for severe weather covers an expanding region where Oklahoma, Arkansas, Texas (Arklatex), and Louisiana come together.

...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK -- INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH STRONG TORNADOES -- IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR ERN OK/NE TX...INTO WRN/CENTRAL AR AND NW LA...

This is an amazing set-up for mid-February (as a general rule, last year being an exception) and chasers are chomping at the bit to see some action with this early season event.

THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL FAVOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT...WHILE THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW LONG-TRACK SUPERCELLS WITH STRONG TORNADOES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA.

get this...

OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS COULD STILL NECESSITATE A HIGH RISK UPGRADE FOR A PORTION OF THE NE TX/SE OK/WRN AR AREA IN THE 1630Z OR 20Z OUTLOOK UPDATES

The only possibility lies in the current low level clouds in that area inhibiting heating and, therefore, instability, but they are airing on the side of caution at the Storm Prediction Center, understandably. This is not a drill. Folks in the Arklatex and surrounding region should remain vigilantly mindful of what's going on around them this afternoon and into the night. Weather radios should remain on! This could be a horribly nasty afternoon and night!

THIS IS POTENTIALLY A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

God, bless them. Oh, how I hate nighttime tornadic events!! The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Public Severe Weather Outlook (as is the norm when a moderate risk for severe weather exists). As the night rolls on, the possibility of strong,long-tracked tornadoes from the potential dry line supercell outbreak will transform into a squall line thunderstorm event with a few embedded tornadoes possible from the remaining instability; however, at that point, its the damaging outflow winds will pose the greatest threat, which will likely cause more widespread damage. Unfortunately, as the energy shifts eastward and the heating occurs through early hours tomorrow, the squall line danger translates to a slight risk for severe weather through a large part of the east and southeast including much of the area east of the Mississippi valley and well into the Appalachian Mountains, including a significant part of Georgia, including the Atlanta area... not me. Due to some model inconsistencies and some uncertainty regarding the instability magnitude, they are sort of understating the categorical risk... from what could "ACCOMPANY A SYSTEM OF THIS STRENGTH", but based on the wording, I feel like it won't take much to change their minds. It appears that the greatest chance at tornadogeneis, if any, would exist later in the afternoon...

AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL MAY BE POSSIBLE... PARTICULARLY FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA PANHANDLE COASTS INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

... from about Mobile to north Georgia. Again, weather radios, folks.

As you see from this shot of this morning's sky, not much going on here...They are some nice billowing altocumulus clouds though.

Have a great (and SAFE) day! (WEATHER RADIOS ON!!!)
~Dewdrop