Upcoming tornado watch

This is half an hour old, but the SPC has issued MCD#82, indicating that a tornado watch will likely be needed soon.

SUPERCELL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS FROM S CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SWWD INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL TX. RESULTING SEVERE THREAT -- INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES -- WILL REQUIRE TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE.

STORMS INITIATING INVOF THE DRYLINE ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME RAPIDLY SUPERCELLULAR. ONCE THIS OCCURS...THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST -- ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS AN INCREASINGLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS AN EXPANSION IN STORM COVERAGE WITH TIME.

It's show time!
~Dew

Moderate risk for Severe Weather in Arklatex

Well, today's the day! Looks like we are facing the first severe weather outbreak of the season! The spotter chatter is going crazy with a moderate risk for severe weather covers an expanding region where Oklahoma, Arkansas, Texas (Arklatex), and Louisiana come together.

...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK -- INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH STRONG TORNADOES -- IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR ERN OK/NE TX...INTO WRN/CENTRAL AR AND NW LA...

This is an amazing set-up for mid-February (as a general rule, last year being an exception) and chasers are chomping at the bit to see some action with this early season event.

THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL FAVOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT...WHILE THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW LONG-TRACK SUPERCELLS WITH STRONG TORNADOES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA.

get this...

OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS COULD STILL NECESSITATE A HIGH RISK UPGRADE FOR A PORTION OF THE NE TX/SE OK/WRN AR AREA IN THE 1630Z OR 20Z OUTLOOK UPDATES

The only possibility lies in the current low level clouds in that area inhibiting heating and, therefore, instability, but they are airing on the side of caution at the Storm Prediction Center, understandably. This is not a drill. Folks in the Arklatex and surrounding region should remain vigilantly mindful of what's going on around them this afternoon and into the night. Weather radios should remain on! This could be a horribly nasty afternoon and night!

THIS IS POTENTIALLY A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

God, bless them. Oh, how I hate nighttime tornadic events!! The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Public Severe Weather Outlook (as is the norm when a moderate risk for severe weather exists). As the night rolls on, the possibility of strong,long-tracked tornadoes from the potential dry line supercell outbreak will transform into a squall line thunderstorm event with a few embedded tornadoes possible from the remaining instability; however, at that point, its the damaging outflow winds will pose the greatest threat, which will likely cause more widespread damage. Unfortunately, as the energy shifts eastward and the heating occurs through early hours tomorrow, the squall line danger translates to a slight risk for severe weather through a large part of the east and southeast including much of the area east of the Mississippi valley and well into the Appalachian Mountains, including a significant part of Georgia, including the Atlanta area... not me. Due to some model inconsistencies and some uncertainty regarding the instability magnitude, they are sort of understating the categorical risk... from what could "ACCOMPANY A SYSTEM OF THIS STRENGTH", but based on the wording, I feel like it won't take much to change their minds. It appears that the greatest chance at tornadogeneis, if any, would exist later in the afternoon...

AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL MAY BE POSSIBLE... PARTICULARLY FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA PANHANDLE COASTS INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

... from about Mobile to north Georgia. Again, weather radios, folks.

As you see from this shot of this morning's sky, not much going on here...They are some nice billowing altocumulus clouds though.

Have a great (and SAFE) day! (WEATHER RADIOS ON!!!)
~Dewdrop

Finally, a MODERATE RISK for me... tomorrow!!!

Well, several members of the Southern Weather Brigade are abuzz with life, after a long bout with SDS (Supercell Deprivation Syndrome), since the arrival of the MODERATE RISK in my neck of the woods. Yes, folks, I WILL be storm chasing tomorrow! At this time, I am charging up the batteries for my still camera, as well as on my video camera... thanks Rick. I have spoken briefly with Rick and Meso Mike, who are both geared up for a chase tomorrow. I have been in touch with Jay, who will be visiting his mom deep in the moderate risk area (looks like whether he planned it or not Jay will be chasing), and am trying to get in touch with Alabama Mike (Alabama Mike, your mailbox is full... could you call me?) to coordinate support. Of course, I will have my chase partner, bf, with me, who I need to remind about the dangers of driving under wall clouds. Don't know yet if we are going for the divide and conquer approach or what, but we are all geared up and ready to go. Here's the discussion out of the SPC.

COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR STRONGLY SUGGEST ANY DISCRETE STORM STRUCTURES WILL ROTATE POSING A THREAT FOR TORNADOES. GIVEN THE FORECAST STORM MOTIONS MANY OF THESE STORMS COULD EASILY BE LONG-TRACK AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING.

So, Happy Mother's Day to me! I will be chasing tomorrow.

THE WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO GET QUITE INTERESTING AS THE STORM SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AS HAS BEEN STATED MANY TIMES... THIS EVENT LOOKS TO COMBINE SOMETHING WE RARELY SEE IN THE COLD SEASON...HIGH CAPE AND HIGH SHEAR. MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR SUNDAY SHOW SBCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG IN THE GFS...WITH AROUND 2000 J/KG IN THE NAM. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR APPROACHES OR EXCEEDS 50 KNOTS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THESE PARAMETERS ARE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SEVERE WEATHER.

Today, there is a HUGE area of moderate risk covering a large part of the south. In fact, a Public Severe Weather Outlook (click here) has been issued for folks living in CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ALABAMA, MUCH OF ARKANSAS, MUCH OF GEORGIA, FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY, NORTHERN LOUISIANA, SOUTHERN MISSOURI, CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI, FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA, WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE, FAR EASTERN TEXAS. (Oh, is that all?)

THE GREATEST THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN TENNESSEE.

This is a large area of moderate risk, and folks within green should be watchful, but the folks in the the red outlined area, should be especially vigilant! In other words, keep your weather radios on. Have you safe spot ready. If warnings are issued, seek shelter immediately, check the validity later! Seriously, this is not a drill!!! As active as this season has been, today could very easily be the day that they think it might be...

THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES... WARNINGS... AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

Be safe! Bf and I are headed to the drag races tonight. I should get some good pics from that. LOL... unless it's rained out... or better yet, severe weathered out... meso discussion...

GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF 3000 J/KG OF MUCAPE...40-50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR...ANY TSTM THAT DOES BECOME SFC BASED WILL LIKELY TAKE ON SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS WITH THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS. MAY SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.

Toodles,
Dewdrop