The heavens declare the glory of God;
the skies proclaim the work of his hands.
-Psalm 19:1

Do you know that God controls the clouds and makes his lightning flash?
-Job 37:15

Tuesday, April 03, 2007

Why don't we just flip a coin...

Well, I got it, my fog picture over that pond (you can see where the water level is very low. Typically, you would see lots of water in this pond, and you definitely wouldn't see the greenery that you are seeing in the base of this picture)... and it almost got me into a jam... You see, I let me window down in anticipation of the pond coming up on my left, knowing that the thick fog would create a nice balance to the strong sun... so I have my camera set, my window down (only part of the way, that's a story in itself) ... I snap my picture and keep going... problem... window won't go back up, big problem with a 30% chance of thunderstorms, which is a bigger chance than we've been having; however, the guys did a great job of squelching my enthusiasm in last night's AFD... THE 00 UTC NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS LESS Q-G FORCING OVER OUR REGION THAN YESTERDAY... SO OUR POP WILL BE LOWER (20-30 PERCENT). THE PRESENCE OF SIGNIFICANT LOW LAYER MOISTURE... MARGINAL TO LOCALLY MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND VARIOUS UNDETECTED MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES ARGUE AGAINST DROPPING RAIN CHANCES COMPLETELY. You know, we FINALLY get our shot, and the guys are hinging on forecasting it away completely. Sheesh... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY... BUT THE LARGE SCALE LIFT AND QPF IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED BY ALL OF THE GUIDANCE. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY TODAY OR WEDNESDAY DUE TO RATHER WEAK DEEP LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (LESS THAN 35 KT)...WEAK FORCING... AND MARGINAL LARGE SCALE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER... CAPE COULD APPROACH MODERATE LEVELS (ABOVE 1000 J/KG) IN A FEW AREAS AND SOME PULSE STRONG STORMS (SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENS IN THE SUMMER) WILL BE POSSIBLE. The good news is that after some time the window eventually went back up... even if our rain chances aren't so hot...

Speaking of hot, things aren't going to be hot for long. A major long wave trough will be piping in some below average temps for our forecast area... they are actually considering using the "f" word (freezing) for the end of the weekend, but they aren't convinced that the GFS is accurate, so they have backed off some. Freezing?! In April?! UNACCEPTABLE! I demand more seasonably appropriate weather... sheesh, what's a chaser to do? The picture to the left was taken a couple of weeks ago while I was taking the Mini-Dew to school. I shot it blind, just sticking my camera out the window and thought it was cool... so I decided to keep it. I figured I could use another sunrise shot for my stock. lol.

Things are heating up in the plains again.... The SPC has placed parts of Illinois, much of Indiana, western Ohio, Northwestern Mississippi, parts of Kentucky, Tennessee and Arkansas (what, not Georgia??) under a moderate risk for severe weather, with the central part of that area offered a 10% chance for the development of tornadoes, as the cold front sweeps rapidly eastward across the country, bringing with it severe thunderstorms and large hail, then as daytime heating warms things up, instability should really take off offering MLCAPES from 2500 to over 3000 j/kg, combining with a weak cap (should get some really awesome CU towers)... plus forecast soundings are showing vertical shear that would favor the development of supercells, with large hail, and as we all know, supercells may produce tornadoes. A public severe weather outlook has been issued. Exciting day, I am definitely misplaced, geographically speaking, of course.


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