Looking westward... because we're droughtin' it back this way...

Right about now, my friend, Jess, is loading up onto a plane to head off to the greatest adventure of her life. The great news is that the set up looks good for some rock solid chasing. Monday offers a 30% chance of severe weather, with decent (moderate) CAPE and shear forecasted. I hope she gets to see some action. I can't wait to hear all about it. The slight risk extends into Tuesday with a more centrally located area of forecasted severity in the plains, offering up to a 15% chance for severe storms. I will keep my eyes on radar out that way, see what kind of fun she's having. My trip isn't too far behind hers. Count down... in 2 weeks and one day, our flight leaves... assuming that the trip isn't cancelled on account of lack of weather. With my history of weather repelling, I must consider that possibility. Holy cow, 2 weeks and one day!!! Oh my goodness!

On to the local Area Smoke Discussion... ah, yes, the Bugaboo fire flared back up yesterday, and smoke will be pushed into the CWA, yet again, looks like south of here though. I didn't detect any smoke when I let the doggone dog out this morning. We actually had a relatively cool evening last night. Except for the lack of rain and real weather, it's been truly beautiful. Crisp blue skies (except when the haze precludes it) and comfortable temps are perfect outdoor weather conditions, great for yard work and outdoor sports. Mini-Dew even had the opportunity to go to a neighbor's house yesterday to get some swimming in. I tell you, the kid's like a fish. Unfortunately, east/northeast winds are forecast to arrive during the mid-end of the week, and those stronger winds will serve to move more of that smoke into our area, should the Bugaboo fire continue to burn as strongly, and of course, given the red flag conditions, any new fires to develop would be fueled by such winds. Fortunately, the ridge arriving on Tuesday and Wednesday should boost RH, offering higher dewpoint temps... I can almost feel the moisture, can't you?

Unfortunately, the long term forecast that we had been looking at has taken a turn for the worst. Ken was kind enough to soften the blow, but the forecast was grim. I won't take away from what he wrote by paraphrasing...

THE ORIGINAL COLD FRONT THAT WAS PROGGED TO REACH OUR AREA BY THU OR FRI OF NEXT WEEK NOW NO LONGER APPEARS TO BE MUCH OF A THREAT...AS SFC AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE TOO STRONG OVER THE SE U.S. AND SHOULD DEFLECT ITS AVAILABLE MOISTURE WELL TOO OUR N. THEREFORE...AS PAINFUL AS IT IS TO DO SO...WILL REMOVE THOSE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE CURRENT FCST. WELL INTO THE FUTURE... BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND... MAY SEE SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE GETTING INTO THE PICTURE...BUT ANY PROGS THIS FAR OFF ONLY CARRY LITTLE WEIGHT AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER...ALL WE CAN DO IS HOPE.

At least he offers some hope at the end of that (a bit of tropical moisture would be awesome right about now). What a dismal long term discussion though! He softened it, but the fact remains, we just lost our one shot at rain, in a while, for a while. All we can do is hope (and I'll add pray)... indeed. Keep those hopes and prayers lifted.

Praying for rain!
~Dewdrop