The tropics are ALIVE!!!!

Tropical Storm Karen is looking fabulous this morning, having developed some solid convection around her center of circulation. She is a nice looking tropical storm, with a very classic look. I love those storms. It's fascinating to watch those. It gives me a very clear sense of how small we are and how powerful God is. Karen is in a favorable environment now (for development), and is, therefore, expected to strengthen in the short term; however, during the next couple of days, her interaction with a trough in the western Atlantic is causing some disagreement amongst forecasting models, with some presenting movement to the north and west... others present a more westward movement track. Additionally, forecasted shear is impacting the various models differently, some projecting Tropical Storm Karen as a Cat 2 hurricane, while others keep her at a minimal hurricane. Time will tell as those two things are the hardest things to truly forecast about tropical cyclones. My gut is telling me a hurricane for the fish, which is great news for all the east coasters... but I know it's hard on some chasers out there who are chomping at the bit for some action (and work) this year.

TD 13 is likely to become a tropical storm later today, having finally gotten some solid convection on the eastern side of the circulation. Should that happen, it will become Tropical Storm Lorenzo. (Anyone remember that movie "Lorenzo's Oil"? Great flick.) Anyway, that one is expected to impact Mexico, though it is fairly stationary right now. West or southwest is the big question there... Time will tell.

Besides that, we have some convection picking back up in the Lesser Antilles with Invest 97L, still a weak low, but holding on... I would like to call it Ingrid re-visited. Seems to be picking up where Ingrid left off. We will see what happens there. Aside from that we have Invest 98L, down off the southeastern peninsula of Florida. Looks like some deep convection pouring into the peninsula off of that. Jeff just mentioned that he is shooting some flooding from it for TWC... isn't that the life? Yes, I am jealous, so? Looks like some good potential with that one. It might just become something. Last but not least, a wave popped off of the coast of Africa that may or may not want to fall in behind Karen. Yes folks, the tropics have finally woken up!!! My tracking chart is becoming a beautiful mess! I am loving it.

As for me locally today, looks like rain.

11:00 Update: Tropical Storm Karen is almost at hurricane strength!!!

I was just checking my blogs, and I realized that Rick awarded my blog with the "Nice Matters" award. Thanks a bunch, Rick ('bout time, cough, cough... lol)! I would like to pay it forward now. Since he has turned it into a weather related blog award, I would like to give the award to Jess. Jess has been agressively seeking as much weather knowledge as she can soak up over the past several months. On a wing and a prayer, she launched herself out into the plains on a wonderful adventure this spring. I have seen her knowledge blossom, and I am so proud of what she has become, and where she has yet to go. Here you are Meso Momma! You deserve this award and so much more. Hugs!

Toodles,
~Dewdrop