Well, let the games begin. Looks like the secondary chase season has kicked up. Currently, the DAY 3 OUTLOOK (Thursday's forecast) includes a slight risk just to my west, and it looks like potential exists for expanding the moderate risk area. A moderate risk on the day 3 is a bold move, and it conveys a high level of certainty on the part of the SPC. It looks like something big is working it's way over...ATTM...WILL INTRODUCE A MODERATE RISK ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST...WHICH MAY BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE AREAS AS FAR S AS THE GULF COAST STATES IN LATER FORECASTS.
Finally... weather. YES!!! Looking at cloudy skies today with 20% POPS. I am not getting a gut feeling that anything significant will come this way except wetness, but tomorrow things jump up to a 40% shot at thunderstorms, and of course, Thursday, we could be upgraded to possibly be looking at severe weather. Of course, the most logical solution is for the weather to arrive Friday because I will be out of town then. My prediction is that tomorrow's storms in the central plains, which are being forecast with a moderate risk for severity with LOW LCLS/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL VEERING/SHEAR SUGGEST THAT MULTIPLE TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW OF THESE TORNADOES COULD BE STRONG AND RELATIVELY LONG-LIVED.
(yes, I am jealous)... will squall out by the time they get here, offering a whole lot of NOTHING, but what do I know, except that I can't chase on Thursday...? Of course not. Lot of moisture rolling in off the Gulf now. Should be readily available for the big event on Thursday, and boy, can we ever use the rain!!!
Otherwise, there is just that area in the GOM feeding all that moisture towards me. Looks like that will provide us with some wet stuff today... though limited, and the big stuff will roll in tomorrow and Thursday.
Here comes weather... finally.
Toodles,
~Dewdrop
Tuesday, October 16, 2007
Almost a severe risk... awesomeness!
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Awesome! Chance of POPs here Friday (30%) WOOOOHOOOO!
ReplyDeleteSCM
You know things are sad when we are excited about 30% POPs...
ReplyDeleteIt is unusual to have a moderate risk on Day 3, but the SPC has gotten more liberal about that kind of thing the last few years it seems.
ReplyDeleteI have noticed that, too.
ReplyDeleteJames Spann just said this on Alabamawx.com:
ReplyDelete"To the west, there will be a significant chance of severe thunderstorms and a few tornadoes tomorrow over the eastern half of Oklahoma and Kansas, with severe weather possible as far south as Dallas/Fort Worth, and as far north as St. Louis and Omaha."
WOW!!!
Let's just hope and pray that they don't occur in populated areas... It is a nice set-up.
ReplyDeleteDid I mention that I didnt hold Chris Daughtry hand?? ;-P LOL!!
ReplyDeleteYes the SPC has gotten liberal with their throwing out risk areas. I remember an Easter sunday a few years back. We had a high risk for us (rare indeed) and we didnt get nothing not even hardly any rain within the risk area. The SPC had egg all over their faces that day. The forums were alive with questions of how the SPC could be so far off with a high risk. Time will tell....
;-P Hey, it was meaningful to me!!! As for the SPC, and in their defense, they are basing their forecasts on the soundings, the models, climatological data, tremendous experience and profound knowledge. I think it just goes to show us that we are NOT in CONTROL. God alone decides.
ReplyDeleteI think the SPC does a great job...
ReplyDelete