Hurricane Dolly pounds Texas Shores

It appears that today is the day. The center of the now very strong (just 1mph beneath a category 2 hurricane) category 1 Hurricane Dolly is just 40 miles east of Brownsville, Texas, now impacting that region with tropical storm force sustained winds and drenching the area with some solid rain bands as she moves in that direction... Time has run out for residents of Brownsville and the surrounding areas to ready their property for the soon to come landfall. Intensification is likely, as Hurricane Dolly will most likely be making landfall as a category 2 hurricane. Already, that area has dealt with some tornado reports and warnings, which is common as a hurricane comes ashore. The good news about these tornadoes is that tornadoes spawned by hurricanes are generally weak and short-lived. As power outages are likely, I am hopeful that people have batteries in their weather radios. Satellite imagery seems to be giving the appearance that Hurricane Dolly is warbling up the coast some... not drastically, but self-preservation seems to be coming into play. I could just be imagining things since I projected a Corpus Christi landfall back on Monday.

HISTORICALLY

Last year, we only had 4 tropical systems to make "landfall" in the US. They were Tropical Depression Barry, Tropical Depression Erin, Tropical Storm Gabrielle and Hurricane Humberto. Hurricane Humberto was barely a hurricane, having just become one before landfall, much to every one's surprise. He really cam out of nowhere... anyone who blinked missed him. Tropical Depression Erin was one of my favorites... she actually apparently re-formed a strong low over Oklahoma... a landspout hurricane... just never identified as such. The others don't even come to mind as anything, except Barry is the last name of one of the Tally forecaster's last names... In 2006, we had Tropical Storm Alberto, the center of circulation of that one traveling right over my neck of the woods, causing a ridiculous amount of panic... they actually sent people home. We got nothing... little rain, hardly any rain, and the center literally passed RIGHT OVER ME... That was it for landfall in 2006, so that leaves 2005, where there were a boatload of tropical systems that hit the US during that historic year. I won't rehash that one, but my point is that with this being the first category 2 (my expectation) to make landfall since 2005, I can see why TWC is a little overboard with it. I crack up when I see Jim Cantore standing in a windy area, shouting... "winds are really picking up!" Drama, drama, drama. It's a category 1 hurricane people. I have to wonder if he gets off camera and just shakes his head, just doing his job.

ELSEWHERE IN THE TROPICS

Aside from that, as if there is any other story (you wouldn't think so with the way the Weather Channel is dramatizing this one...) We have another area of interest, now being called Invest 97L. Although, the models really played this Cape Verde wave up, it is not expected to develop over the next couple of days. They are keeping an eye on it though.

LOCAL WEATHER

Aside from that, locally, we had some nice thunderstorm action yesterday evening, as a complex of storms rolled in from the northwest, really stirring up the instability, the map was alive with severe thunderstorm warnings, with an occasional tornado warning thrown in for good measure. As for today (you know, the day bf has outdoor plans with his kids):

Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 2pm. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

In fact:

THE MODELS HAVE COME AROUND TO INDICATE MORE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON THAN THEY HAVE FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

Actually, the SPC has put us within an area of slight risk for severe weather.Wind and hail are the greatest threat today... but with the overcast skies I am seeing, I am only expecting rain, none of the fun stuff. sigh

11AM update:

1000 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008

...DOLLY VERY NEAR THE TEXAS COAST WITH 100 MPH WINDS...EYE SHOULD CROSS THE COAST IN A FEW HOURS...

Category 2!!! 12:30PM Update: I just got a call from Mini-Dew asking me to check the radar because her grandmother won't let her go to the amuzement park today (at all) because there is thunder. There is only a 30% chance of scattered showers, and it's obvious that their current system is almost over, the one that is currently over them.She is so frustrated... understandably.

1:00PM Update: Looks like the edge of the eyewall has come in contact with South Padre Island in Texas (where Jim Cantore is was... not that I'm obsessed with him or anything...)

1200 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008

...DOLLY HESITATES...EYEWALL OF DOLLY CROSSING SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...

Have a safe day!
~Dewdrop