Fay is one crazy chick!!!

Insanity... insanity. I am blown away by the GFS... blown away. Thanks to Mikey for sharing it with me... but here's a link. OK, so in case the updates destroy it... it shows Tropical Storm Fay cutting across the southern peninsula of Florida as a hurricane... breaking into the nice warm waters of the Atlantic... chilling there for a spell, then, cutting back across near the CENTRAL EASTERN Floridian coast (as a possibly MAJOR hurricane), cutting back across into the Gulf of Mexico and shooting up into the Florida panhandle/Alabama area for possibly a 3rd landfall in Florida!!!!! Wow! The guys at the National Hurricane Center have got to be going nuts over these model runs.

First off, I see the forecasted trajectory as wrong. I think she will go further east than they are currently showing in their swath cone... I think the Keys should brace for an impact and that this thing will head further east. I am not a trained professional though. I think that the possibility exists for this thing to stall over these warm waters as she gets her act together... already built up to 60mph winds, just 14 miles under a hurricane designation... over the moist warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Oh yeah... anything can happen. Really, the trained professionals have a path drawn out that could conceivably launch it out into the Atlantic Ocean for a second landfall in Georgia/South Carolina/North Carolina (my original forecast was Oak Island, NC for the record, so this forecast is ironically humorous to me)... Jeff is in and Rick is headed to the southwestern Floridian coast for a chance at a hurricane intercept.

A hurricane story for you... remember me mentioning my dear CNN friend who shares the happy news stories with me and her sweet little girl who has injured in a fireworks accident (she's fine now)? Well, they have been counting down their big family vacation to Disney World. They stayed at my house last night on their way to Orlando, and they plan to dine with all the princesses in the morning at the glorious castle that fills the hearts of so many little girls with magical fantasy... yes, this same little girl who told me this morning that she dreamed last night about Disney World and Cinderella... well, her mother came to me this morning and asked me if they should cancel their trip to Disney!!!! Ugh. They want me to decide that they should crush the dreams of this precious little girl based on a wishy-washy forecast?! I have no formal training... I have no true knowledge and even the PAID and TRAINED professionals are stumped on this one! Anything can happen. So, instead of telling them, I would or wouldn't go, I broke out the Care Bear rain ponchos and told them Orlando will probably be wet.

Update:

320 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY MADE LANDFALL OVER KEY WEST FLORIDA AT 3 PM EDT.

Now... for the part they keep kind of quiet...

500 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A TCU WAS ISSUED NOTING LANDFALL WHEN THE WINDS AT KEY WEST WENT CALM AT 3 PM. LATER DATA SUGGESTS THIS WAS DUE TO A MESOSCALE FEATURE ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER CENTER OF THE STORM...AND THE TRUE CENTER OF FAY IS OVER KEY WEST NOW.

hmmm... I was wondering how the above radar capture was showing a key west landfall. Here's the crazy part though...

THE UKMET HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST ANDFORECASTS A NORTHWARD MOTION THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH A SHARP TURN TO THE WEST AFTER 72 HR.
THE CANADIAN MODEL HAS A
SIMILAR FORECAST.
THE GFS AND ECMWF CALL FOR FAY TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC...FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD TURN AND MOTION BACK INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA AFTER 72 HR.

Yes, folks... 4 models say it's going to cut back to the west... yeah... but what are the guys saying????

IT IS LIKELY THAT FAY WILL MAKE LANDFALL AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH. AFTER 24 HR...THE INTENSITY WILL DEPEND MAINLY ON WHETHER FAY IS OVER LAND...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON FAY REMAINING OVER LAND AND THUS DISSIPATING. IF FAY REGAINS THE ATLANTIC OR THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN STRONGER THAN FORECAST.

AND THE WARNING... (This should be paid VERY CLOSE ATTENTION TO!!!)

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT...SIMILAR TO CHARLEY IN 2004...SMALL DEVIATIONS FROM THE FORECAST TRACK COULD MAKE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN WHEN AND WHERE THE CENTER OF FAY MAKES LANDFALL ON THE FLORIDA COAST.

Busy day.
Have a great one!
~Dewdrop