We have Tropical Depression Gustav still dumping buckets on a now quite saturated Louisiana, after making landfall yesterday as a category 2 hurricane there. We have Hurricane Hanna, a category 1 hurricane taking aim at the Georgia/South Carolina coast line around the end of this week, as a hurricane. We have Tropical Storm Ike, headed toward the Bahamas and Cuba by this weekend, as a hurricane. We have the now, Tropical Depression 10, the future Josephine, forecast to be a hurricane by this weekend and appearing to want to follow in Ike's footsteps. Then, there are two low potential likelihood disturbances out there. With them lining up like that, it looks like we should remain vigilantly watchful.
11AM Update:
Here are the satellite images of these storms...
In case you're confused... here is the comprehensive look...
I sure hope that everyone had a wonderful Labor Day! My wonderful gtb took Mini-Dew and a friend of hers back to the Blue Hole Spring and the Head Spring at the Ichetucknee River. We had a lot of fun! Gtb even got us some yummy ice cream.
FYI... Here is a visual of the different models on Hanna... Looks like she is planning to possibly come and play with me... The Georgia coast is getting slammed in this run.
Have a fantastic day!
~Dewdrop
Tuesday, September 02, 2008
The Atlantic has got them lined up!
Tropical Depression Gustav looking pretty wet over Louisiana...
A very discombobulated Tropical Storm Hanna... hanging on for dear life to probably once again gain hurricane strength and head northward toward South Carolina's coast by late Friday. The shear from a powerful looking Gustav is doing a number on her though.
A sparsely convected Tropical Storm Ike is forecast to persistently move westward toward the US, arriving in the Bahamas the end of this weekend as a hurricane.
I think NOAA ran out of satellites and rather than looking at their tropical depression, they are looking at Invest 90, located between Hanna and Ike, but this is the Navy's barely capture of newly named Tropical Storm Josephine. The models are having problems agreeing on this one's destiny. Some increase her to a hurricane moving west northwest, others totally demolish her in the upcoming shear environment, which the NHC finds seasonably unlikely, so they are going with the hurricane solution.
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Morning - Shear beginning to relax some as a less hostile upper-level pattern builds slowly in from the northeast of Hanna. New explosive convection developing in her southeastern semicircle per the latest visible loops. Hanna’s low-level naked circulation is very well established, so she shouldn’t have a problem hanging on another 24-36 hrs with shear, especially if she continues to burst some decent convection in close proximity to her center.
ReplyDeleteRecon just taking off, so we should have some better data of her core in a few hours. The continued west-southwest drift is becoming concerning for me and a more direct impact along Florida’s east coast.
Thanks, Jeff , for the very detailed analysis of the environment. If you go after Hanna and you're passing through, make room... will ya?! :O)
ReplyDeleteSure will! First have to see if this will be a Florida intercept, or a Carolina's chase.
ReplyDelete12z GFS rolling in...west shift again tracking Hanna just offshore Southeast FL now.
ReplyDeletetrending west?
Awesome! Keep me posted!
ReplyDeleteLooks like a doggone ricochet off of J'Ville and then detour up to SC. Ugh. It's as if it doesn't even see GA. That's ok... J'Ville is closer than Savannah.
The east coast from Miami to SC might feel some portion of Hanna’s core if she continues to hang around in the islands. She continues to produce decent convection on the east side here at 2pm.
ReplyDeleteNOGAPS model shift west as well now with a track through SFL into GA.
I should probably post that... so everyone knows what you're talking about... GA would be easier to intercept... for me.
ReplyDeleteOkay you two - don't actually get to see the plane itself, but can follow the flight path and see the data as it comes in on Google Earth.
ReplyDeletehttp://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/ge/Recon_Data_for_the_Atlantic_Basin.kmz
:D
yeah Hanna per recon fixes is drifting east-southeast at the moment... maybe trying to make that cyclonic loop some of the models had. The longer she hangs down south in the Bahamas, the more time for the ridge to build in.
ReplyDeleteChristine, I will have to wait until I am with gtb. He has Google Earth loaded. Thanks for the awesome link.
ReplyDeleteJeff, Are you trying to be a weather hog? I mean, I know it's exciting to save on gas but to get all the landfalls down there... sheesh.
LOL - Saves on my back too being in the car for hours on end.
ReplyDeleteJeff G. The cane magnet!
ReplyDelete