Regarding the now, Tropical Depression Ida, currently flooding out Honduras and after slamming into Nicaragua as a hurricane, this is what the models see as the potential trajectory for her future. I am bothered by the westward training, as I don't really think that is a realistic path...
THE INTERACTION OF IDA WITH THAT TROUGH IS CAUSING A WIDE VARIETY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS... RANGING FROM A FASTER CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LANDFALL TO IDA REMAINING SEPARATE FROM THE TROUGH AND STAYING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD SINCE THE LAST RUN...CLIMATOLOGY AND THE FORECAST STRONG UPPER- LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SUGGEST THE EASTERN SOLUTIONS ARE LIKELY CLOSER TO REALITY.... but neither does the National Hurricane Center, who have a cone extending into my neck of the woods.Which might put it in the... big bend of Florida. For me, that would make it a chaseable event. I can get to the big bend in time to intercept, but I can't make it there Thursday... sigh. With the frontal boundary bearing in, though, a greater likelihood (in my very strong and amateur opinion) would be closer to Tampa... as a strong TS or extratropical storm.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON HOW MUCH INTENSIFICATION TO EXPECT WITH IDA. THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWS A RATHER MODEST AMOUNT OF RESTRENGTHENING... WHILE THE REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS SUGGEST THAT IDA WILL BECOME AThis is how she currently looks over Honduras, as she grasps for her place over water.That's Ida.
Have a great weekend!!!