Historic flooding event in process on the mid-Atlantic coast

SKY WATCH FRIDAY time! Welcome all sky fans!!! I truly appreciate your visit and comments. I might not have time to respond to you, but I will try my best to visit!!!

Our hosts: Klaus Sandy Sylvia Wren Louise Fishing Guy

Thanks, also,to Dot and Tom, who were instrumental in the success of this blogging event. You should definitely come fly with us!
By now, most of you have heard of the huge coastal storm that is inundating the mid-Atlantic coast, most likely causing a historic flooding event, as the remnants of Ida merge with a high pressure system, creating a powerful pressure gradient, which is currently generating tropical storm force winds, causing ferocious waves, dropping buckets of rain and raising water levels, leading to flooding. The graphic the the left demonstrates the warnings and advisories being issued by the National Weather Service. You can click on the image for an updated depiction. Currently, there is flooding along the coast of North Carolina and Virginia from the surge combined with high tide overnight. Unfortunately, we expect that trend to move up the coast as subsequent high tides occur and the very slow storm motion, which in and of itself is going to cause rainfall totals 3x greater than a typical total rainfall for a wet November. Almost 10 inches have already been reported in some places.Precipitation

This system is offering basically the most destructive elements of a hurricane, without it being a hurricane. The areas affected will have flooding far inland due to excessive rainfall, which will be bad, but as the water level of the coastal water rises (storm surge--the pressure gradient will be drawing in storm surge), the waves grow in height, and high tide approaches again (4-5PM today), we can expect a devastating flooding event.

THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY MORNING.

Please join me in praying for all those who will be impacted (or have already been impacted) by the system formerly known as Ida, now just a no-name storm.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN™

God bless those involved in the coastal storm.

3:20PM EST Update: Unfortunately, the remnant low of Ida has aligned with high tide to create a nightmare scenario. Fellow storm chaser and Southern Weather Brigade member, Mikey is located about 1/4 mile from the coast in Norfolk. Please include his family and friends in your prayers.

~Dewdrop

Ida downgraded to extra-tropical as she moves ashore

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA MADE ITS FIRST LANDFALL AROUND 540 AM CST...1140 UTC... ON DAUPHIN ISLAND ALABAMA... WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR.

THE CENTER OF IDA MADE ITS SECOND LANDFALL AROUND 700 AM CST... 1300 UTC... JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF BON SECOUR ALABAMA.

Fortunately for us here in south Georgia, a great deal of the associated moisture was quickly lifted up to our north into that frontal boundary. North Alabama and Georgia were both inundated with heavy rain as the racing outer bands of Ida were ripped away from the core circulation. Fortunately, the fast movement should help in preventing too much horrific flooding. There is a band currently training over a good part of south Georgia. I am expecting that to move my way and cause a mess down here, but it shouldn't be too terribly bad. In any case, Turn Around, Don't Drown™. That line is actually presenting itself well on satellite. The now, extra-tropical Depression Ida is expected to traipse across the south and eject on the east coast and perhaps head south toward the Bahamas.The models pretty much look like spaghetti at this point, so it's anyone's guess. I like the one that has it doing a loop-de-loop in West Virginia and then racing out into the Atlantic. I think the models pushing it southward are accurate. The National Hurricane Center shared this suspicion and have decided on this as their official forecast.It looks like a wet day for most of Georgia.

Looky, looky, is there more on the horizon...? (Not likely!)Have a beautiful day!
~Dewdrop

Tropical Storm Ida Breezes

Well, you can see on this image that persistent Tropical Storm Ida is bearing down strongly on the Gulf Coast. The expectation is that there will be wind and rain, causing power outages and flooding, a storm surge of 3-5 feet is anticipated. Locally, we are starting to get increased breezes, southerlies and easterlies competing for power in my neck of the woods, as the outer bands of Tropical Storm Ida press inland.
Being in the northeast quadrant of a land falling tropical storm, there is a possibility of some weak and brief spin-ups (tornadoes), but our main concern her is the potential for lots of rain as Ida catches the frontal boundary and hangs a right, which is the forecast.Yep, we are definitely in the cone; looks like rain!

~Dew

What's Ida going to do???

Yes, the now Hurricane Ida is bearing down on the US Gulf Coast, losing intensity as she makes her way toward us. She has lost some of her beautiful (yes, I am weird) structure. She has lost a tremendous amount of symmetry and intensity over this morning. Hurricane Ida reached category 2 strength yesterday, and as she has journeyed northward into an area of cooler waters and a more hostile environment for such tropical activity, we see her losing structure and strength. As of this morning's most recent advisory, Hurricane Ida is a category 1 hurricane, with her sites set on the Pensacola/Mobile area for a full impact tonight.With Ida rapidly losing intensity, the big issue is less where she'll hit directly, but how much rain she carries with her, and her interaction and absorption with the front now making its way across the US. The eastern US will most likely all be impacted in some way by the now Hurricane Ida. Granted, I don't think it will be nearly as dramatic as TWC is making it out to be. Given the timing, it doesn't look like I will be chasing this November hurricane. If only it was moving in this weekend...

Have a great day!
~Dewdrop

What's in store for Ida?

Regarding the now, Tropical Depression Ida, currently flooding out Honduras and after slamming into Nicaragua as a hurricane, this is what the models see as the potential trajectory for her future. I am bothered by the westward training, as I don't really think that is a realistic path...

THE INTERACTION OF IDA WITH THAT TROUGH IS CAUSING A WIDE VARIETY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS... RANGING FROM A FASTER CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LANDFALL TO IDA REMAINING SEPARATE FROM THE TROUGH AND STAYING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD SINCE THE LAST RUN...CLIMATOLOGY AND THE FORECAST STRONG UPPER- LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SUGGEST THE EASTERN SOLUTIONS ARE LIKELY CLOSER TO REALITY.

... but neither does the National Hurricane Center, who have a cone extending into my neck of the woods.Which might put it in the... big bend of Florida. For me, that would make it a chaseable event. I can get to the big bend in time to intercept, but I can't make it there Thursday... sigh. With the frontal boundary bearing in, though, a greater likelihood (in my very strong and amateur opinion) would be closer to Tampa... as a strong TS or extratropical storm.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON HOW MUCH INTENSIFICATION TO EXPECT WITH IDA. THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWS A RATHER MODEST AMOUNT OF RESTRENGTHENING... WHILE THE REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS SUGGEST THAT IDA WILL BECOME A
HURRICANE AGAIN.

This is how she currently looks over Honduras, as she grasps for her place over water.That's Ida.

Have a great weekend!!!
~Dewdrop

Hurricane Ida arrives in the Caribbean

SKY WATCH FRIDAY time! Welcome all sky fans!!! I truly appreciate your visit and comments. I might not have time to respond to you, but I will try my best to visit!!!

Our hosts: Klaus Sandy Sylvia Wren Louise Fishing Guy

Thanks, also,to Dot and Tom, who were instrumental in the success of this blogging event. You should definitely come fly with us!Well, with all the beautiful skies I've been having lately, it surprises me that I didn't have any current pics that I haven't already shared, so I hit the archive. This is a wonderful winter sunset back from 2007. There are several things about this image that I really love. 1. The color, the golden amber glow was a wonderful way to end the workday. 2. The way the sun appears as a brilliant ball of fire, close enough to reach out and touch. 3. The way it appears to be melting the sky beneath with is golden yellow whirling below and the coral flash wafting above. 4. The golden glowing rim of cloud... telling me some clouds have a golden lining. 5. The way the light of the setting sun hits the contrail in the upper left of the shot, glowing brilliantly back at the beaming sun. 6. The trees showing their vulnerability as they lay barren against the cold winter, awaiting with eagerness, the newness that arrives in spring.

Lo and behold, we've got the 3rd hurricane of the Atlantic Basin's 2009 season. Yes, you read that correctly, here we are November 5th, and we are just on number 3. Can you name them? The first made landfall in Newfoundland, and actually took the life of a little girl in Maine, and that was Hurricane Bill (what a name!). The other was Hurricane Fred. Remember that one? No? Well, he hung out around the Cape Verde Islands, but he did not make landfall. Both reached major hurricane status during their lives. Now, we have Hurricane Ida. She formed off the coast of Nicaragua, and has (as of the most recent advisory) made landfall in that treacherous mountainous country, Nicaragua. When Hurricane Ida emerges on the other side, she is expected to gain strength over water... and then emerge into the Gulf of Mexico. All Gulf coast interests should be keeping their eyes on Ida. We will plan an intercept if she makes it up during next weekend. It's too far out to know how the models will hold up. What the models are saying...

Have a blessed day!
~Dewdrop

We've got Tropical Storm Ida...

We've got Tropical Storm Ida, packing winds of 60mph, but look at this...She's expected to make it to the Gulf of Mexico and strengthen after a wet assault on Nicaragua and Honduras.

~Dew

Don't turn your back on the tropics just yet

Well, looky looky, down in the Caribbean Sea, we have an area of low pressure that the National Hurricane Center has identified as having a high probability of development into a tropical cyclone. It's been a while since we have talked about anything going on in the Atlantic Basin... it's been a dud season, but here we are with a late bloomer, which is actually presenting itself rather nicely on satellite.It looks very well organized to me, and I wouldn't be surprised if after reconnaissance, they skip tropical depression and immediately call it Tropical Storm Ida. You might be thinking... but the season is over... not so, the Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season lasts until November 30, and tropical cyclones have formed beyond that date in the past, so it's mostly just a time frame for expected occurrence.

Yesterday, I was leaving work and there was an amazing contrail that had feathered out to look like a giant spine (crooked like mine) across the huge expanse of sky. It was very cool, so... you know what I had to do...Then, last night, we had a beautiful altocumulus obscured moon with full and brilliant corona. I just sat back and enjoyed it this time.

Have a beautiful day!
~Dewdrop

All this pressure....

SKY WATCH FRIDAY time! Welcome all sky fans!!! I might not have time to respond to you, but I will try my best to visit!!!

Our hosts: Klaus Sandy Ivar Wren Louise Fishing Guy

Thanks, also,to Dot and Tom, who were instrumental in the success of this blogging event. You should definitely come fly with us!
I took that shot as I was leaving work last Thursday. It begged me to capture it in B & W, and being a fan, I decided to oblige. The towers were amazing that evening, but nothing ever came of them in my neck of the woods. Are we surprised??? I think not.

I guess the big weather story today is the weather in the northeast. I've spoken about the off shore low pressure system that was being held captive there by a high pressure system in the northeast. Well, as the low pressure system, which dumped buckets of rain on the Carolinas and Virginia, moved northward to actually interact with the high pressure system, it generated winds as the pressure gradient was fueled. Basically, wind moves around a high pressure system in a clockwise motion, and wind moves around a low pressure system in a counter-clockwise motion. When the high and low pressure systems are squeezed together, it creates almost a wind tunnel effect with the strongest winds being where the winds of the two systems merge. You can see that area here on the current surface map. New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia... that whole area should expect some powerful wind, rip currents and some rain as the day wears on.

Onto Hurricane Fred, it's the only story in the Atlantic right now, with a name you will most likely not recollect next year, along with the other 5 named storms this year. How about this... anyone remember Ana? See, already forgotten. Hurricane Fred is still churning up the Atlantic, not too far from the Cape Verde Islands. He did ramp up intensity yesterday, only to return back to category 2 strength. He doesn't present well on satellite imagery, having lost his beautiful symmetry... he is definitely a top heavy storm. Poor guy. He is not a threat to land, as he should be downgraded by Tuesday. Of course, I wonder if the remnants stand a chance. He could become "the-come-back-Fred". Stay tuned.

Have a stupendous day!
~Dewdrop

09-09-09...

Well, well, if it isn't the calendrical anomaly representing the last set of repeating, single-digit dates that we'll have for almost another century on January 1, 2101, or unless you want to get technical, nearly a millennium, when it occurs on January 1, 3001. I don't think we'll be around for that one... Considering, that the first would put me over 120, I don't think it's likely that I will see another date like this one again. Happy 09-09-09!!! Now, I don't really think it's "good luck" or "bad luck", though those things are up for debate. I just think it's really cool.

Moving on to weather... the non-tropical low off the coast of the Carolinas and Virginia is pretty much at a stand-still, with the firm high pressure taking hold to its north, flooding from this low pressure system is now the main concern. Already roads and homes are taking in water. Way out in the Atlantic, not too far off the coast of Africa, we see now rapidly intensifying category 2, Hurricane Fred, destined to be a fish, but presenting himself beautifully on satellite (clicking on the image will link you to a looping image of Hurricane Fred. Yes, Hurricane Fred, now only the second hurricane of the Atlantic basin 2009 hurricane season, is expected to become a major hurricane, but is not expected to pose a threat to land as he shoots northward and out to sea.I expect the 11AM update to present a major hurricane, as he is quite impressive on satellite.

A parting memory...

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Have a wondermous day!
~Dewdrop

All sorts of towers...

SKY WATCH FRIDAY time! Welcome all sky fans!!! I might not have time to respond to you, but I will try my best to visit!!!

Our hosts: Klaus Sandy Ivar Wren Louise Fishing Guy

Thanks, also,to Dot and Tom, who were instrumental in the success of this blogging event. You should definitely come fly with us! I would like to share two shots with you today. One, I shot Monday morning. There was an amazing sunrise, which turned a patch of virga (rain that doesn't reach the ground) bright pink. I have enhanced the contrast to help you to see it more clearly. I posted it unedited on August 31, if you care to check that out.It was beautiful. My other choice for today is just a random June cumulus tower from my 2007 archive. It made me smile, so I thought, why not...
Speaking of towers... does everyone remember the tornado that ripped through downtown Atlanta on March 14, 2008? Well, that same tornado damaged about 1500 windows on the Westin Peachtree hotel.

the cylindrical hotel was heavily damaged by the March 14, 2008 twister that ripped through the area. Designed to sway, the building moved two feet in either direction from the force. The damage knocked 320 of the hotel’s 1,068 rooms out of service, and 81 are still not being used.
~source

Today, work has begun to replace those broken windows. Though the project will take over a year to complete, the structure will be much more structurally sound when the project is complete ($22 million later...)

The replacements, each larger than a doorframe, will be heavier than the originals -- 270 pounds instead of 140 pounds -- in order to meet today’s building codes, which are more stringent than when the hotel was built in 1976.
~source

Here are some links to my coverage of that historic tornado.
Link 1
Link 2
Link 3
Link 4
Link 5

Aside from the, the largest wildfire in LA history is still not contained, but humidity levels have risen to help the firefighters in their efforts. Tropical Storm Erika is just about done with her time with us. She is amounting to just about nothing.

Have a... ... day!
~Dewdrop

Tropical Storm Erika forms and struggles to hang on...

Well, here we are in September, and we are just now seeing our 5th named storm. Please join me in welcoming the disorganized Tropical Storm Erika to the scene as she loses the punch she started out with while she approaches the Lesser Antilles, which is a good thing. Her being the only show on this side of town (the Pacific is very much alive, speaking of Hurricane Jimena did make landfall on the Baja as a category 2 hurricane.), it is pretty much all eyes on the pathetic mess that has become of Tropical Storm Erika. It does look like she's building up some deeper convective activity, with some strong cells developing near the "center" of that system.

IT APPEARS THAT THE CENTER HAS REFORMED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED TRACK. HOWEVER THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY BE MULTIPLE CENTERS

You can see that very well in the loop linked here. She is forecast to hug the islands as a tropical storm, so all of the islands should keep a close eye on Erika. You see all the outflow pouring out of her... the cirrus looking clouds spraying out, looking almost like a pinwheel. Very cool.

Have a terrific day!
~Dewdrop

Colorful virga!

After a wonderfully relaxing weekend, full of cleaning, cleaning and more cleaning... I was surprised with a lovely sky-treat. As I went outside to sit and watch Mini-Dew at her bus stop, I looked up to see a dynamic and heavily textured sky. It was gorgeous with the rough underbelly of an altocumulus stratiformis blanket, but then, as the sun rose into it, it came alive with an amazing pink flair. If that had been all, it would have been enough, but that was far from all. As I looked up to take in the beautiful palette of color, I was struck by something I haven't quite seen in that light... falling from the clouds in my northeastern sky, were sheets of virga (rain that doesn't reach the ground), and it too was awash with the splash of pink, salmon, coral, orange, gold. It was brilliant... so you ]know me, I rushed back inside to grab the camera. :DAlmost like my own little Aurora Borealis show... except NOT! One of these days... probably when I'm old and allowing myself to grey.

Well, Tropical Storm Danny was the less than exciting story on Friday. We became slightly more interesting factor when he merged with an extratropical low pressure system off the coast of the Carolinas. Really, I think meteorologists will argue about whether or not Danny should have ever earned his title. No more reports are coming out about him, but another area, which looks slightly better is given a high chance of development. Stay tuned for ongoing coverage of the birth of Erika.

Have a stupendous day!!!
~Dewdrop