Severe threat today in south Georgia...

Well, looky, looky what the SPC has done, placing me well within an area of slight risk for severe weather. Tomorrow, it's a discussion related to my area... Thursday, another slight risk... then, a clear weekend. :D Couldn't be better timed. For today, we wording is pretty exciting:STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES...

THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR COMBINED WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 1200 J/KG RANGE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH 30 TO 40 KT OF FLOW JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT A WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS THE MCS MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 25 KT SUGGESTING AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT CAN DEVELOP. AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY IF THE MCS CAN GENERATE A BOWING LINE SEGMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT COULD AFFECT THE FL PANHANDLE AND NRN FL BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

Gee... I wonder what I'll be doing after work today???

In addition to severe weather, we have a serious threat of some heavy and flooding rain over the course of this week. I have heard there is a potential for anywhere from 8 to 12 inches of total rainfall, and some of these areas are already recovering from the weekend's heavy rains.

5:13 PM: Show time in Georgia...

5:26 PM: Looking worse...Tornado warning in Camilla, GA is reported by spotters to have funnels dropping from it. The path is expected to move almost due east toward Moultrie, GA, and Rick is working in Lowndes.

Have a lovely day,
~Dewdrop

A thoroughly unimpressive chase...

OK, so after the appointment on Saturday, my wonderful gtb and I went after the well trained squall line, which had established a line across the entire state of Georgia... really... from coast to coast, this line trained just a county to my north... there hadn't been any strong indications of rotation in a couple of hours, well, since about 1:30 that afternoon, which is about the time, Rick captured the really awesome rotating wall cloud... while a little too close. We parked in Cecil, Georgia and let the rain overtake us there as the squall line of storm slowly crept it's way to the east. Most of it missed my area, where some areas to my north and west had 8+ inches of rain, we had about 1/2" cumulative rainfall. Seriously, the line trained along one line (well, the warm sector) for hours, inundating them with more rain than any area can find useful all at once. There occasional bursts of spinning scud... but it never lasted and quickly got absorbed into the line. Basically, we had some mean and turmoiled looking stratocumulus, with very occasional and short lived rotation in the scud, which quickly stopped... The highlight of our chase occurred while we were driving back into town, where we penetrated the line between the cold front and the warm sector... we were casually driving along, and the windshield INSTANTLY fogged up on the outside. It was reminiscent of driving through those mechanized car washes and you get a blast of air from that. Instantly, we had zero visibility. It was cool, but that was literally it until the Lowndes County CodeRED Weather Alert rang my phone to let me know about the "flash flood" potential in my neck of the woods. Dewvoid.

The following day, we explored... wisteria by a river. Except for the horrendous mosquitoes, it was wonderful.The coming days show another few shots at some severe weather... Instability is the main question.Really, there is a slight risk today around Oklahoma/Kansas, tomorrow in some of the Gulf States. There is text regarding Wednesday for my neck of the woods, then Thursday, they are looking at slight risk here... then Saturday in Texas. Busy week.

Have a great day!
~Dewdrop

Tornado in Doerun, GA?

Rick didn't see it, and he says he doesn't even have good pics of it, but the Storm Prediction Center has a tornado report... looks like from the cell Rick was on.

TORNADO REPORT
1700 DOERUN COLQUITT GA 3132 8392
TREES DOWN POSSIBLE TORNADO SEVERAL SHEDS WITH ROOFS OFF (TAE)

Have a great day!
~Dewdrop

Rick can't keep up with it, turning around

Rick sees rotating wall cloud with rotation...

So, I am watching TWC getting ready and I hear that a spotter called in a rotating wall cloud... so I call Rick... sure enough. He is the red square.

It's fast approaching, round 1... round 2 is mine.

The sun is shining here... making our environment ripe for an outbreak. We've also got some ferocious wind!

~Dew

Rick is deployed

Tornado warned cell into Cordele, GA... did I not call that?! Looks wet. It'll be hard to see!

Rick is deploying west to Mitchell County to try to intercept the tornado warned cell in the city of Colquitt.He's the red dot.

Incidentally, the tornado watch box has been expanded and extended until 6PM. :DLooks like we've got a ball game with round 2. Gtb and I should be out after about 3:00 or 3:30. I hope we don't miss it!

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

DISCUSSION...A LARGE MCS WITH EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES/SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ENEWD IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK MESOLOW IN SW GA...AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING SLOWLY NWD FROM SRN INTO CENTRAL GA. A FEED OF MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS FROM THE NE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS...WHILE LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

~Dew

SUN'S OUT!

Looks like we might get that shot at instability after all!

Decisions... decisions...

I just woke up, and there is a nice couplet just outside of Dothan, AL, that is severely rain wrapped. I could get set up in position, up in Cordele for an intercept, but I probably wouldn't see anything unless it's right on top of me, so I'd have to be in the exact spot at the time of intercept to avoid major problems.In contrast, I could just wait around here, see what happens with the line and let it come my way.I probably should mull this over for a few, not too long though cause if I am going to move, the time is now.

7:49AM I really think the big event is yet to come, if the sun gets a chance at all. I think this cell will not survive all the way across GA in all this mess of rain, so going after this one rain wrapped cell would be a waste of time. I am leaning on holding tight until this afternoon, and going after whatever then. From Tally:

THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA THIS MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING WEST EAST INTO THE BIG BEND AND GEORGIA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

8:30AM Looks like I made a good decision. That one cell seems to have mostly been absorbed into the big wall of rain headed this way. If we get any substantial sun to break through, we've got ourselves a ball game!!

~Dew

While I was sleeping

A tornado watch was just issued for my area... but while I was sleeping, this went by my house... yes, those leading cells could have caused a lot of harm, without me having a clue that the threat existed. Aggravating. Anyways, the watch woke me up, so now I am debating... Should I go after it now, or wait? It's still dark, I am really tired and the main event is a ways out... just poppers ahead make it interesting (you know the same ones that could contain a strong tornado.

Well, sweet dreams.
~Dewdrop

Someone missed the mark...

Uh oh, looks like someone missed the mark... For an outlook that excluded North Carolina ... it sure is interesting that over half the 19 tornado reports today occurred in NC. Yep, someone was asleep at the wheel, not even a slight risk... not even in the ball park. Yikes. It's not finished yet... the big event has yet to come. This will be a rough night, and where the forecast was looking at MS/AL, I am thinking more like AL/GA. Not good. The tornado watches have been expanded into a large portion of Alabama. Not good.

~Dew

Hail... no.

Well, with the approaching squall line, I decided to do an impromptu chase, in an effort to catch the shelf cloud of the approaching storm, and possibly grab some hail. Mikey was available for exceptional radar support, so we talked through what it looked like and he got me in position for the greatest likelihood of hail, given my time constraints. At the time I went out, a portion of the squall was showing some bowing, so I expected some wind too.

Well, I went around the area, headed due west at first to speed up convergence between myself and the storm. I still wasn't able to see the edge of the storm, so I went down some side roads to shoot for a more photogenic spot... found some beautiful wisteria...I'm getting distracted... where was I??? Oh yes, the squall line racing toward me... as I crept off the side road I was on, which only offered a decent enough view, I noticed the shelf of the storm...... it wasn't the best, lowest or most ominous shelf cloud, but there it was. I drove around to different spot, capturing it.Well, then the cloud heighth got good on a cell only about 2 miles south of me, and he urged me to go after that for my hail shot. I found a nice spot with a lovely view of the west, slightly tree line obstructed, but I was after watching hail, so who cares, right? It didn't end up popping a hail core, but it did bring a down-pour. It was great. I like those kinds of lunches. Hail would have been better though.

As for the set-up tomorrow... still a slight risk for severe weather over a significantly large portion of the eastern US. People have been asking me my target area. I have an unavoidable appointment at 2:30 in Valdosta, but I am hopeful we can work around it.

SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM CLUSTERS...WITH LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS. A SIGNIFICANT REMNANT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...COULD EXTEND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA AT 12Z SATURDAY. IF THIS BECOMES THE CASE...HIGHEST SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY EXIST ALONG THE RETREATING OUTFLOW...AND AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT... IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO EASTERN GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BE CONSIDERABLY GREATER FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED IN THE CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK...PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA DURING THE DAY...

I plan to be out there!

Have a great and SAFE day and night!
~Dewdrop

Tornado watch with warnings in Georgia and Florida

Tornado watch with warnings to my southwest and due west... More to come, covering all this wild, wild weather after a few.

Tornado watch now includes me... lots of warnings, severe and tornado within the powerful squall racing across the south where two tornadoes have already been reported in the panhandle.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH OF MOULTRIE GEORGIA TO 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA.

It's headed this way strong and hard, and it doesn't look like even the powerful dewvoid will be able to stop it. Round 2... coming right up.Here is the current report... click on it to link to the update, which is also in my sidebar.This is what it currently looks like...
~Dew

Southeast facing a 1, 2, 3 punch of severe weather

SKY WATCH FRIDAY time! Please visit Klaus, Sandy, Ivar, Wren, Louise and Fishing Guy, the team for SKY WATCH FRIDAY (click the word to link and participate!) Thanks to Dot and Tom, who were instrumental in the success of this blogging event. You should definitely come fly with us!This is a capture of a swelling cumulus cloud... I watched as the cloud swelled and grew before my eyes, climbing vertically in a hostile atmosphere, ready to explode with thunderstorm. Here is a link to a time lapse video of a thunderstorm developing, and it shows the stages of development of a thunderstorm... from fair weather cumulus to swelling cumulus to towering cumulus/cumulus congestus, where the thunderstorm has formed. Seeing lots of these cumulus towers would indicate a great deal of instability, moisture and lift, and you can expect some thunderstorms.

Today you can expect thunderstorms if you are in the southeastern US, severe thunderstorms at that... With up to 17 tornadoes now reported from Monday's severe weather outbreak, 1 reported on Tuesday, and 6 reported yesterday (the tornadoes are the red dots on the graphic, and they happened over night, one of which being the very powerful tornado near Magee, MS, which is in the Jackson metro area, and there are injuries reported, including 2 people who were sky-lifted. As Melissa pointed out in my comments section, it looks like it was a minimal EF3 with extensive damage and unknown number of injuries... It happened while they were sleeping. Gosh, I hate night outbreaks!)... the idea of three more days of severe weather potential in the south, probably has a bunch of southerners cringing... I'm sure many are weary.

Frankly round one has actually expanded the severe zone to nearly include me (should include me overnight... sigh), and as the squall line approaches, if it maintains any structure, it will impact my area and most of Georgia. In fact, the line is just about to cross into Georgia further north of me. A tornado watch is in place through the area of the present squall and just to its east, and although the line seems to have weakened as it has entered Dewvoid territory, the tornado watch will persist for the 40% moderate chance that the area will see tornadoes. Like I said though, this is only round 1 for the south.Round 2 (above) actually includes my neck of the woods as severe weather persists in the southeastern US.

THE IMPLICATIONS OF THIS IMPULSE POTENTIALLY INCLUDE: 1) CONSIDERABLE TSTM DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING EARLY IN THE DAY OVER THE CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES WHICH WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM WARM SECTOR...AND 2) THE LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE TO THIS LEAD IMPULSE. IN OTHER WORDS...LATEST MODEL FORECASTS ALL VEER AND MIGRATE THE LLJ EWD FROM THE CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES TOWARD THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST. WHILE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE...WIND FIELDS WILL BE RELATIVELY STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS TORNADOES. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT IMPACTS THIS INITIAL STORM ACTIVITY WILL HAVE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WARM SECTOR.

LLJ IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN FRI NIGHT FROM NEAR THE MS RIVER EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL GULF STATES AND NWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. AS SUCH...KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS... THE CORRIDOR ALONG AND JUST TO THE S/SE OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK WILL REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR LONGER-LIVED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES /SOME POSSIBLY STRONG/. THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES SPREADING EWD INTO MIDDLE TN AND AL BY 28/12Z.

DUE TO THE CONCERNS AND UNCERTAINTIES LISTED IN THIS DISCUSSION...A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED. BUT...AN UPGRADE IS STILL POSSIBLE IN LATER OUTLOOKS ONCE FINER-SCALE DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

Then, it almost immediately feeds into round 3. (above)

...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...
MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS/DYNAMIC COOLING MENTIONED ABOVE TO SUPPORT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION OVER A LARGE REGION E OF THE MS RIVER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS AND DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL FAVOR MULTIPLE LINE SEGMENTS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/BOWS CAPABLE OF POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND TORNADOES. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF GA/N FL INTO THE CAROLINAS AND VA ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SURGING THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS. WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN VERY STRONG WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS/BOWS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.

AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK MAY WELL BE REQUIRED IN LATER OUTLOOKS ONCE FORECAST DETAILS BECOME CLEARER. (This is Saturday, they are talking about upping to a moderate risk for severe, and guess who is planning to go storm chasing??? )

Should be a wild next few days.

9:43EDT: Looks like Enterprise, AL is under fire with a tornado warning in that area. They suffered a blow two years ago on March 1, 2007, when an EF4 caused extensive damage and stole some lives.

Incidentally, the slight risk today has expanded since my earlier post... I am officially within an area of slight risk for severe weather. Much of Georgia has been included in the area.

Thanks to the Weather Channel for sending me a link to the preliminary report from Jackson, MS, regarding the "AT LEAST AN EF3" tornado that ripped through Magee, MS very early this morning, leaving many injured, some seriously, some people missing, documents moved to other counties and dozens of structures damaged or destroyed.

Update on Enterprise, one of three wind reports today:

ENTERPRISE COFFEE COUNTY AL
SEVERAL REPORTS OF DAMAGE AROUND ENTERPRISE. SEVERAL TELEPHONE POLES DOWN...TWO CHICKEN HOUSES SIGNIFICANTLY DAMAGED. ONE TRAILER WITH ROOF DAMAGE.

Stay tuned.
~Dewdrop

Severe weather today, tomorrow, Friday, Saturday

Well, it looks like things are panning out nicely... With all the hype though, I was surprised to see only a slight risk for severe weather on the 3 day outlook, but each day through day 4 (Saturday, which has actually shifted eastward)presents a slight risk still.Day 1 (Today's) Outlook
Day 2 (Tomorrow's) Outlook
Day 3 (Friday's) Outlook
Day 4 (Saturday's--my weather) Outlook
Stuff is started to fire up now, but I have my sites set on Saturday for my neck of the woods... and really for the entire state of Georgia (and NC, and SC, 1/2 of TN, WV and VI... and then some. Looks like overnight, Friday night, Alabama will deal with a significant tornado threat, and then Saturday, it will shift our way.

1. A SIGNIFICANT MIDLEVEL LOW WILL LIFT FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
2. A TRAILING VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRANSLATES EWD THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST.
3. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY WILL OCCLUDE WHILE DEVELOPING NNEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
4. MEANWHILE...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SURGE EWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES...REACHING THE MID/SERN ATLANTIC COAST TOWARD THE END OF D4 OR EARLY D5 /SUN MAR 29TH/.
5. A BROAD AND STRONG LLJ WILL RESULT IN THE RAPID NWD ADVECTION OF A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
6. ANOTHER INTENSIFYING SYNOPTIC SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL U.S. ON D5.

My wonderful gtb and I plan to be out chasing this event on Saturday. Love it.

God's unseen presence comforts me,
I know He's always near;
And when life's storms besiege my soul,
He says, "My child, I'm here." -D.De Haan

~Dewdrop