Hail... no.

Well, with the approaching squall line, I decided to do an impromptu chase, in an effort to catch the shelf cloud of the approaching storm, and possibly grab some hail. Mikey was available for exceptional radar support, so we talked through what it looked like and he got me in position for the greatest likelihood of hail, given my time constraints. At the time I went out, a portion of the squall was showing some bowing, so I expected some wind too.

Well, I went around the area, headed due west at first to speed up convergence between myself and the storm. I still wasn't able to see the edge of the storm, so I went down some side roads to shoot for a more photogenic spot... found some beautiful wisteria...I'm getting distracted... where was I??? Oh yes, the squall line racing toward me... as I crept off the side road I was on, which only offered a decent enough view, I noticed the shelf of the storm...... it wasn't the best, lowest or most ominous shelf cloud, but there it was. I drove around to different spot, capturing it.Well, then the cloud heighth got good on a cell only about 2 miles south of me, and he urged me to go after that for my hail shot. I found a nice spot with a lovely view of the west, slightly tree line obstructed, but I was after watching hail, so who cares, right? It didn't end up popping a hail core, but it did bring a down-pour. It was great. I like those kinds of lunches. Hail would have been better though.

As for the set-up tomorrow... still a slight risk for severe weather over a significantly large portion of the eastern US. People have been asking me my target area. I have an unavoidable appointment at 2:30 in Valdosta, but I am hopeful we can work around it.

SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM CLUSTERS...WITH LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS. A SIGNIFICANT REMNANT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...COULD EXTEND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA AT 12Z SATURDAY. IF THIS BECOMES THE CASE...HIGHEST SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY EXIST ALONG THE RETREATING OUTFLOW...AND AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT... IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO EASTERN GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BE CONSIDERABLY GREATER FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED IN THE CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK...PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA DURING THE DAY...

I plan to be out there!

Have a great and SAFE day and night!
~Dewdrop

Sites set on SATURDAY

Looks like things are setting up for an outrageous storm system to pound us this weekend. I am planning to get my things ready for an exciting chasetunity setting up for Saturday. I started watching this system on the GFS on Friday and saw that it might be one to reckon with... great timing, a weekend chasetunity, and for 6 days out, the wording in the discussion is decidedly strong.

IT DOES APPEAR THAT INGREDIENTS WILL BE COMING TOGETHER BY D5 OVER PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY SUCH THAT A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE. CONSIDERABLE AIR MASS MODIFICATION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD SUPPORT DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WITHIN SYSTEM WARM SECTOR. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED AND FORCED ENVIRONMENT.

IT APPEARS THIS SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES AND TN VALLEY ON D6 AS THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE REGION.

I think it'll come down to timing on this... I am seeing everything from Friday to Monday. Alabama Mike alerted me to the strong wording in Birmingham's HWO...

AN EVEN MORE POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM HEADS ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY SENDING A MORE WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE REGION. VERY IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR SHOULD COMBINE FOR AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. THESE KINDS OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY CAUSE MORE RIVER FLOODING AND SOME FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...BUT CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE LIKELY THAT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES... COULD BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY ANYTIME FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY

I'll keep you posted on my plans.

~Dew

Severe weather... finally, a cure for SDS!

Looks like a break in the monotonous cold/warm up/cold/warm up cycle is in store for my neck of the woods. The SPC has for today dumped a slight risk for severe weather that almost includes Alabama Mike. It looks like the bulk of it is capped and instability will be limited by some low clouds that have set up there, but tonight in the east northeast area of the slight risk, they are expecting more action with...

SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ROTATING STRUCTURES AND BOWS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR SVR HAIL...AND...ESPECIALLY TOWARD 12Z...POSSIBLY DMGG WIND.

I hate night events. Hate them.

The exciting part of the forecast arrives on Wednesday...I think that for the first time since last year, I am solidly within the slight risk area.Here's what they are saying...

THE STORMS WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY (toward me)...BUT IN THEIR WAKE...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVER MUCH OF WARM SECTOR (here) WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT INSTABILITY (can't go severe without instability). (HOWEVER...) VEERING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WLY DURING THE DAY MAY HELP TO MIX OUT THE LOW CLOUDS FROM THE WEST JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT (if this happens far enough ahead, enough daytime heating will occur that will offer the instability we need for some action).

With the right convective set-up, things could very possibly explode (storm-wise) right over my head... which would actually be bad because it would be that "out of nowhere" scenario, which is one of the the worst for preparing non-weather geeks. They "didn't see it coming", so to speak.

ACTIVITY WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY STRONG KINEMATIC PROFILES WHICH WOULD SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES WITH ANY SURFACE BASED DEEP CONVECTION.

If not for the limiting factors and uncertainties discussed, probabilities would be much higher, as everything else supports a big event. Basically, for such an event, clouds would have to break up just ahead and moisture would have to move in... all at just the right time... but, it could happen.

Here's the catch... I have SKYWARN® spotter training scheduled tomorrow. I joked with the Emergency Manager who scheduled the training that it was nice of him to schedule severe weather for our training. He joked that he just wanted to "be a hands on class". LOL! That would be awesome if we could do some on-the-job training for our spotter class! Click on the SKYWARN® logo to link to information about spotter training in your area. I think everyone stands to benefit from spotter training. Even if you don't plan to call into the National Weather Service, you will be better educated about the weather around you and, therefore, better prepared for what may come, to more adequately prepare for inclement circumstances. Did I mention that I attended "Chase School" (thanks, Alabama Mike for pointing that out), I have found and am fulfilling my destiny. When it comes to storms, you can never know too much! Thanks to all my training, I've graduated from this...
... to this...






Updated outlook:

A CLUSTER OF STORMS COULD EVOLVE WITH THIS FORCING ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GEORGIA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS. WHILE THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL MAY BECOME THE MOST PROMINENT SEVERE THREATS...SIZABLE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH THE INITIAL MORE DISCRETE STORMS.

Holy guacamole...

Have a great day!
~Dewdrop

Took the long way home...

Well, Mini-Dew and I were traveling from the library to the pet store (needed hay for the giant rodent) yesterday evening, when I noticed that convection was rolling in hard out of the south... the Gulf feed was significant and it was a solid deck of moisture rolling in. I promptly let bf know that his topless time was over and that it was time to dress the jeep, and then I sat and photographed some of the towers going up there in the parking lot, which Mini-Dew was annoyed and embarrassed by, but she didn't get really irritated until later in the evening. Here are the early towers though.Now, that last one... that's my little storm cloud. That tower climbed and climbed, and I got to watch the whole thing as I drove through town, thinking... wow, that's nice... man, look at that thing climb... we've got ourselves a nice little storm... all the while snapping shots, while I was safely stopped at lights or pulled off the road (seriously, I had Mini-Dew in tow.) I really like the church one. Here, I was stopped just outside of a trailer park, where there was a patch of wisteria up against the fence... I couldn't get over how gorgeous they are up close. They look like little iris blooms. Who knew? Of course, you know what they meant I had to do... right?







You have to click on those to look at the larger pic. Beautiful purple wisteria blossoms... chasing Dewdrop style... They were so beautiful, I simply had to capture them with the cumulus tower backdrop...After that, I had all intentions of heading home, checking out radar, to get a good look at the big picture... which when I left for pain and torture was sporadic nothingness, at least where weather was concerned. Things were starting to feed in and fire, but nothing major, and I could see that much looking at the sky. I was almost home, when I decided to seek out a field to watch this little cell roll by. I couldn't get over how striking the structure was and to have it facing the setting sun... beautiful!!! There was absolutely no indication of rotation, so I felt comfortable with where I was. It was all just going up. It was magnificent, and it absolutely captivated me, where I was compelled and determined to watch the entire life cycle of my little storm cell, despite Mini-Dew's perpetual criticism... "Mommy, when are we going to go?" "Mommy, this is boring." "We aren't doing anything." "It's just a cloud." Somehow, she doesn't see the splendor that I see when I look at something as powerfully magnificent as a thundercloud. Oh well, we stayed until I was finished looking, so basically almost through dissipation. It was actually overtaken by the next, much larger thunderstorm before it fully dissipated, and... BONUS, the subsequent cloud actually had an associated shelf cloud. Coolness, AND bf had texted me about a green sky south of me... hail core punching with Mini-Dew... lol.

OK, no, I did not see a tornado. No, I didn't catch any lightning (it was sparse, and it just didn't seem worth the effort it would've taken). No, I saw no funnel cloud... not even a wall cloud, or even the most slight indication that there was rotation, BUT I was able to experience some awesome structure in my neck of the woods, and I chased it Dew-style.

Today, the action area appears to be northeast Texas and southeastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Let's see what happens. I stayed up on Steve Miller's (Oklahoma Steve's) forecast chat room last night to see what everyone thought of the set up. Lots of chasers will be out chasing this event today. I know both Steve Miller, OK and Steve Miller, TX will be out, both streaming live video of their chases, if that works out. I have a jam packed full day, and then I am off to Atlanta. I will update as time permits. I just hope all the chasers stay safe, and that those in the path of this potential tornado outbreak stay vigilant in watching conditions and listening to their radios. Unfortunately, today's severe weather outbreak will likely continue into the night. Looking at statistics, the tornado count for this year, so far, already more than doubles the 10 year average, and we are just now entering the "peak tornado season". It should be a very interesting day.

Toodles,
~Dewdrop