Looks like things are setting up for an outrageous storm system to pound us this weekend. I am planning to get my things ready for an exciting chasetunity setting up for Saturday. I started watching this system on the GFS on Friday and saw that it might be one to reckon with... great timing, a weekend chasetunity, and for 6 days out, the wording in the discussion is decidedly strong.IT DOES APPEAR THAT INGREDIENTS WILL BE COMING TOGETHER BY D5 OVER PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY SUCH THAT A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE. CONSIDERABLE AIR MASS MODIFICATION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD SUPPORT DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WITHIN SYSTEM WARM SECTOR. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED AND FORCED ENVIRONMENT.
I think it'll come down to timing on this... I am seeing everything from Friday to Monday. Alabama Mike alerted me to the strong wording in Birmingham's HWO...
IT APPEARS THIS SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES AND TN VALLEY ON D6 AS THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE REGION.
AN EVEN MORE POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM HEADS ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY SENDING A MORE WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE REGION. VERY IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR SHOULD COMBINE FOR AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. THESE KINDS OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY CAUSE MORE RIVER FLOODING AND SOME FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...BUT CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE LIKELY THAT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES... COULD BE POSSIBLE.I'll keep you posted on my plans.
.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY ANYTIME FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
~Dew
Off Saturday..Looks like fun to me..
ReplyDeleteFri/Sat looks like it could be one of the biggest events of the year (or even longer) if the model hype pans out. Very strong wording from a wide variety of sources.
ReplyDeleteI will be at the Miss. St. SE Severe Weather Symposium. May have to chase Fri eve, baased out of Starkville...