It's not over, till it's over...

A little late getting my post up today. Sorry. I have had a very full day. I had, yet another, appointment with my pain manager, who's really slacking in the management of my pain, in my opinion. We decided that since there was a slight improvement (though not nearly the 100% he had hoped for...) that we would proceed with the 3rd and final injection. sigh. I am a little frustrated that there is still pain, but those muscle spasms have developed over many, many, many, many years, and they aren't going to go away overnight... much to my dismay. Anyways, there you have it.

Onto the 2009 Atlantic Basin Hurricane season, which is still going... by the way. The disturbance in the western Caribbean is looking better organized, and actually stands a better shot at developing over the next few days than how it was looking.

THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND SOME ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

It really becomes evident how the organization has recently improved when you click on the above image to view the loop. We could very well have an appearance by a late in the season Paloma, which is the pre-selected name for the next named Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone.

Onto the tornado trend, since I frequently discussed that through the course of this very unusual and extremely active year. If you will recall, the season started off with a tornadic bang when we saw a record breaking February outbreak totalling 148 tornadoes. The February 5-6, 2008 tornado outbreak actually fell within the top 15 ranked outbreaks based on fatalities, with a devastating 57. It started hard and pressed on that way for many months, trending to be on track for breaking yearly tornado count records. Fortunately, our October was not as bad as the trend would suggest it to be, and many were spared the hardship of an October outbreak. At this point, the tornado count for this November and December would need to come within 10 of the record for those months in order to break 2004's record total year count. It looks as if we've been spared... knock on wood. I say that just before a slight risk presents itself in the outlook. Tornadoes are mentioned as a possibility, but are not presented at the main threat.

I will keep you posted... but in other weather related news, I love the image below that my dear friend Ro sent me, which ties election day to weather (think about it) in a much more pleasant way than TWC has been lately. They have been annoying the fool out of me, with their "live coverage" of the weather in voting precincts... good grief. Thanks Ro. No, I don't think she's in Alaska anymore... a little scary how perfect McCain looks as Scarecrow. Don't you think...? Don't know who to give credit to, it's not mine...

Toodledew,
~Dewdrop

Turn Around Don't Drown... Texas, Dolly!!

Happy Sky Watch Friday!! It's post time!!! (Please visit our host, Tom, Klaus, Sandy and Imac's Sky Watch blog (click here or on the logo to participate) to participate in Sky Watch Fridays. So much fun!!! I highly recommend it!) Today, I have chosen a shot of a cumulus congestus (Latin word congestus means: A HEAPING TOGETHER) ... or a cumulus tower. A cumulus tower (TCu) is what occurs when moisture meets instability. In a cumulus tower, you are seeing strong updraft, which is air being lifted to higher levels in the atmosphere, when colder air forces warm air up. The higher the tower is, the more updraft you are witnessing. In this case, the cumulus clouds were rising extremely high into the atmosphere, beginning to block the sun... thunderstorms were the result (key ingredients for a thunderstorm are moisture, instability and lift).... as well as buckets of rainfall. When you start to see lots of these forming, you can expect a doozy. Unfortunately, this shot is interrupted by the ever present cell phone tower which seem to be popping up everywhere these days... mucking up the scenery. Down in the bottom right of this shot, you see crepuscular rays, which I love.

Now, onto the now Tropical Storm Dolly. Yesterday Hurricane Dolly made landfall in South Padre Island as a category 2 hurricane, with 100mph winds slamming southeastern Texas, knocking out power, knocking down trees, damaging structures along the coast and dropping buckets and buckets... and buckets of rain. Seriously, heavily convected Dolly packed a WET punch and slowing down to turtle pace has made her presence very well known, with MORE THAN 10 inches of rain having fallen in some areas of southern Texas, but you can see in this current satellite capture that she is still going!! Of course, as with any land falling tropical cyclone, the danger of tornadoes exists. In fact, that purple box represents a tornado warning in that area.

Outside of TS Dolly, we have the very b r o a d area of underconvected low pressure out by the Cape Verde Islands, which has a slim chance of development, but it is the next thing on the "radar". Could we be looking at the future Edouard??? If so, he's a monster!Bf and I are headed to the mountains of NC this weekend to do a little waterfall exploration... I should have some great photographs to share after this trip. A huge thank you to EG Tour Guide for teaching me how to cross things out!!! :O)

Have a great day!
~Dewdrop

Tropical Update by Dewdrop

**FOR MY SKY WATCH FRIDAY POST, PLEASE SEE BELOW**
Artwork by Klaus and Jane... borrowed image...

I just had to share an update about the tropics, since the activity out there is super-crazy, and I like to use my blog as a record as well as for information share. So, I start with Bertha and go through all the invest areas...
BERTHA NEWS

...TENACIOUS BERTHA REFUSES TO WEAKEN...
...BERTHA STRENGTHENS AND ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD...

Well, this little lady is certainly tenacious, unrelenting and persistent. She appeared as a strong wave off the coast of AFRICA!!! at the beginning of July!!! and hasn't quit since. Here we are 15 days after Tropical Storm Bertha was named such, and she has just strengthened... again (recall that she became a MAJOR HURRICANE at one point along the journey across the Atlantic). She is not considered a threat to land at this point, but she is impressive and still going. Yesterday, I joked that she could pull out a loop dee loop and shoot back around to hit NC... that is NOT the forecast. No worries from Bertha folks...

INVEST 94L NEWS

THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER-ORGANIZED. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNITRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM HAS FORMED.

Invest 94L has been a wishy washy system, sometimes looking exceptionally ripe for the making, other times, looking like a disorganized mess. Well, she is looking quite ripe once again. Recon flights attempted to find a closed low earlier in the week, but they are seeing some really favorable signs of development and are giving this area a high probability shot at developing into a tropical cyclone in the very near future.

INVEST 95L NEWS
Well, 95L is centered over land which doesn't give it much of a shot at development. Had it been centered over the warm waters of the Caribbean Sea, we might have an entirely different story, but as it stands this area of tropical moisture is pummeling Honduras, Nicaragua, Belize and Guatemala with some torrential rain, which will most likely result in flash flooding and mudslides, possibly deadly. 95L is not expected to become a named storm.

INVEST 96L NEWS

THERE HAVE BEEN SOME VERY INTERESTING DEVELOPMENTS SINCE 08Z IN REGARDS TO THE TROPICAL LOW PRES OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. IT APPEARS A NEW SURFACE LOW MAY BE FORMING OFF THE SE GEORGIA COAST WHICH IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT... THIS NEW LOW MAY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TODAY OR EVENTUALLY A FULL FLEDGED TROPICAL SYSTEM BY THIS WEEKEND GIVEN IT/S POTENTIAL NEW FOUND LOCATION.

This is a very interesting system to me, and its location and proximity to me makes it of particular interest. 96L started as a low off the west coast of Florida (just outside of Tampa), showing a nice spin and some significant moisture... well, after dumping buckets of rain on the peninsula, the resultant low in the Atlantic was not nearly as impressive, and the National Hurricane Center dropped the probabilities of it organizing into a tropical something or other. Well, all that has changed... Yesterday, 96L's convective "bands" were actually visible in my neck of the woods, creating some interesting scenery as the convective bands of stratus invaded by beautifully convected and unstable atmosphere... robbing me of my thunderstorms... I guess it's a cool trade-off. It was really cool to see the edge of 96L on visible satellite moving over my area and to see what that translated to from the ground. I am such a geek.

Don't blink...

500 PM AST FRI JUL 18 2008

...BERTHA BECOMES A HURRICANE AGAIN...

Happy Friday!
~Dewdrop

Tropics Alive!

Well, the tropics sure have come alive! First of all, we have the longest-lived named storm in July's history since hurricane record keeping began. Tropical Storm Bertha still churns off in the Atlantic Ocean after, quite literally, blowing by Bermuda. As we've seen with this tropical lady, she is capable of just about anything. She was named back on July 3, and here we are July 16...

1100 AM AST WED JUL 16 2008

...BERTHA A LITTLE STRONGER...

Wow!

Onto Invest 94L, which I have blogged about over the past couple of days... that area of low pressure sure got a boost of convection over night and is looking like a system with potential once again...

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1045 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2008

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER-ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL BE INVESTIGATING THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS FORMED. EVEN IF NO DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

There is a high probability of development into, at least, a tropical depression for this one...

Then, we travel to the Gulf of Mexico, where a convective low pressure system spun up over night, just off the coast of Tampa. There is a lower probability of this one becoming something, but that is only a function of its proximity to land. I, however, am seeing a nice spin to that low and solid convection... it seems to be trying to organize quite well, despite the land. We will watch and see... but anyone with vacation plans on the west coast of FL is looking at rain, rain and more rain... and possibly water spouts... send pics!

Locally, yesterday, we had some nice thunderstorm action. Things were booming and pouring, and I caught a glimpse of this beautiful sky... the sun setting shining at the tops of the thunderheads was breath-taking. I was awe-struck. I couldn't get to a position of good composition in time... soon the nimbus sky took over the view. It was so beautiful listening to the booming and rumbling thunder...

On the way to work this morning, I decided to take a pic of that picturesque little barn and silo that I pass daily and have photographed often. Well, unfortunately, during one of the recent storms, much of the roof caved in on this structure... not sure how long it will be allowed to stand in that condition. It is such a striking capture of days gone by... in my opinion.

One of my co-workers sent me this really incredible shot taken by Carlos Gutierrez of the eruption of the Chaiten volcano in Chile, as it generates an explosive thunderstorm. ... Here is an article with more amazing shots of this spectacular phenomenon.

In a random check for updates, after news from Mikey that the recon flight was inside Invest 94L... I discovered this updated map...A late arrival on the scene in the Caribbean...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF NICARAGUA IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT BEFORE MOVING INTO CENTRAL AMERICA LATE TOMORROW.

Almost forgot to mention... the bass yesterday was the best fish I have ever had. What a difference it is to have fresh fish... and a great cook! ...Though, Mini-Dew wasn't too keen on the rod to plate idea... I don't think she likes to get to know her food before eating it. My little city girl would never survive on a farm.

Just got a message from Christine that there was a tornado warning in Wisconsin... Beth... hope you really are listening to your weather radio. Good news is it is going north of you, and you are in your basement already!) Anyways, when I checked it out, I noticed... well, see for yourself...Sheboygan?! Wasn't I just there! Ugh!

Have a lovely day,
~Dewdrop