Check out the DAY 2SVR...

EARLY MORNING MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LOW OVER CNTRL TX WILL OPEN AND EJECT EWD ALONG THE GULF COAST AS BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH EVOLVES ALONG THE MS VALLEY. OF PARTICULAR INTEREST IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR STRONGER FLOW ALOFT TO EXTEND AROUND THE SRN PERIPHERY...NWD INTO PORTIONS OF MS/AL/FL PANHANDLE. IF STRONGER FLOW MANAGES TO EXTEND INLAND ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST...THEN THE PROSPECT FOR STRONG ORGANIZED STORMS WILL CERTAINLY EXIST. IT APPEARS LLJ WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE NRN GULF INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION...THUS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD FOCUS DEEP CONVECTION AHEAD OF UPPER LOW. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD...ONE OR MORE MCS/S WILL EVOLVE IN ASSOCIATION WITH DAY1 ACTIVITY...POSSIBLY BEING MAINTAINED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...EXTENDING FROM THE NRN GULF INTO WRN MS AT 15/12Z. IF SUFFICIENT SHEAR/ INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP ACROSS SERN LA...EWD TO THE FL PANHANDLE...A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE REQUIRED. TRENDS CERTAINLY SUPPORT THIS POSSIBILITY AND WILL MONITOR FOR UPGRADE IN LATER OUTLOOKS. Interesting wording there... officially in "wait and see" mode... stay tuned for more updates.

...and a quick look at this afternoon's AFD reveals: THURSDAY...GFS IS SHOWING INDICATIONS AN MCS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD EASTWARD TOWARD MORNING. SINCE WE DID SEE AN MCS DEVELOP THIS MORNING...I`M NOT WILLING TO DISCOUNT THE "OMEGA BOMB" AS CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. I love it... it's actually a good read if you're into that kind of thing. Kelly's AFD's are awesome! Here's more: AS FAR AS STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. OVERALL KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS WEAK. WIND SHEAR IN THE 0-6KM LAYER IS LESS THAN 30KT. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING A SBCAPE AT MANY SITES OF BETWEEN 300 TO 700 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME THUNDER...BUT I`M NOT REAL CONFIDENT ABOUT STRONG TO SEVERE POTENTIAL AWAY FROM THE COAST. MAIN THREATS HERE BASED ON THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE SOME HAILERS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...BUT OVERALL THREAT APPEARS LOW... AND ACCORDINGLY SPC HAS NOT PUT OUR REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK. HOWEVER...IF THE GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SYSTEM (AS IT HAS DONE EACH RUN)... STRONG TO SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE.

Ciao,
~Dewdrop