My, how things can change overnight...

Somehow... this: ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS became this overnight:... THUS... WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SMALL HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. See, that's what happens when I go to sleep...

This is something else... at 7:25, I woke up to let the doggone dog out, to do his thing, and was struck by the beautiful high cirrus, painted against a crisp blue sky, with a golden sunrise lifting into it... I thought... gee, I need to take a picture. Then, I thought, no, I need to crawl back into bed and catch a few more zzz's. Well, my mind won out that time (especially in light of the upcoming time change -- btw, don't forget to "spring" your clocks forward an hour before you go to sleep tonight!) With an hour's loss tonight, it seemed much more valuable to get another 30 minutes or so of shut eye. So, I snooze, waking at about 8:00, grabbing my camera and running outside to see what's pictured above... The beautiful patchy cirrus clouds were overcome with convective patches moving in... It made for a totally different picture, but it shows you where we are right now... Enter the moisture. Now, all I need is some lift and instability, and then, we've got ourselves a ball game. (See SPC notes above, the game may be called on account of a lack of sufficient storm qualities... sigh) I'll continue to watch... Here's what the guys were saying early in the AM: MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON DO SHOW H5 TEMPS RANGING FROM -15 TO -20 C WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR. WET BULB ZERO HGT RANGES FROM 7 TO 8 KFT WITH THE FREEZING HGT AROUND 10 KFT. WITH THESE PARAMETERS... EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED EVENTS AT MOST IF ANY...AND MOSTLY OVER THE NRN PORTION OF THE AREA...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. My, how things can change overnight. Looking less and less like a chase day for me, but I'll continue to keep an eye out. Perhaps, though, it's time to start looking ahead to the next one... Wednesday/Thursday with already weakening trends... sigh. I'm beginning to develop a complex and I'm not talking about an MCC (Mesoscale Convective Complex)... wouldn't that be nice? I don't think the weather wants me to chase it...

Have a wonderful Saturday. I'll be on more if something comes of all this.

9:00AM Update from the NWS: AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS THINKING THAT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE PRETTY SPARSE TODAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES E OF THE AREA WHERE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. So now, we're looking to the east, not the north..., according to Kelly's Aviation forecast: A CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLD T ACROSS EASTERN AREAS...MAINLY FROM VLD EASTWARD...BUT PROBS ARE TOO LOW AT VLD TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAF. Nope folks, not looking like much of a ball game... RUC for VLD looks at about 2:00PM being our best shot for today at weather, and if it clears in time, I'll be after a sunset. I believe it's a 6:22 sunset today... Maybe, I will get to chase the sun. I'll keep watching.

Ciao,
~Dewdrop