Sigh... north.

A crisp winter's morning. Frost kisses the grass where the dew once lay. High cirrus clouds, waftingly painted across a pale blue sky as the brilliant sun rises introducing hues of red, orange and pink.... current conditions... I thought it would be nice to tell it the way that I see it.

A little bird at the NWS told me that it looks like the severe weather threat is dwindling for Tuesday that the energy will probably be to our north, our part of the system void of deep moisture... Tim, you heart breaker, you. We will see. Of course, I will continue to watch. This is the official word: THIS MOISTURE INCREASE (dewpoints drastically increasing) MAY PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN HOW MUCH ATMOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION OCCURS AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. RECENT MODEL TRENDS...HOWEVER...HAVE BACKED OFF SUBSTANTIALLY ON THE SEVERE WX THREAT FOR TUESDAY...AS THE SFC LOW MAY NOW BE WEAKER INITIALLY AND TAKE A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK BEFORE SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPENING...WHICH MAY TAKE THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND ANY STORMS OFF TO OUR NORTH AS WELL. THUS...THIS MAY ALSO REQUIRE SOME DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE POPS...BUT STILL PLAN ON KEEPING THEM IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY AT THIS TIME. They sure know how to burst my weather balloon. At least we made it into the slight risk category... see?
According to the SPC: ...WITH A SECONDARY LOW POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING OVER GA TUESDAY AFTERNOON ...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST FOR A SEVERE THREAT TO SPREAD EWD TOWARD SWRN GA/PART OF NRN FL...GIVEN FAVORABLE KINEMATICS FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH HOW FAR EAST SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR... So... something to keep an eye on. I will watch it without expecting anything, at this point. The models have been wrong before. Might just be a computer chase assuming GR cooperates this time. I'm off to get ready for church now.

Have a great day!
~Dewdrop