Mackerel sky, mackerel sky. Never long wet and never long dry.

Sky Watch Friday post time!!! Yes, yes, I know it's early... for one, I have a full day meeting tomorrow that will prevent me from getting my post out, and this way, maybe I won't be number 190 on the sky watch list. Now, I need to find inspiration quickly, as Thursdays are busy...(Please visit our host, Tom's blog to participate in Sky Watch Fridays. So much fun!!! I highly recommend it!) Today, I am posting a picture of Altocumulus Clouds (Specifically an Altocumulus mackerel sky)...

Altocumulus mackerel sky
Genus Alto- (mediumhigh) -cumulus (heaped)
A mackerel sky is an indicator of moisture (the cloud) and instability (the cumulus form) at intermediate levels (2400-6100 m, 8000-20,000 ft). If the lower atmosphere is stable and no moist air moves in, the weather will most likely remain dry. However, moisture at lower levels combined with surface temperature instability can lead to rainshowers or thunderstorms should the rising moist air reach this layer. In the winter it is often said to precede snowstorms and flurries. There is an old saying, "Mackerel sky, mackerel sky. Never long wet and never long dry." The phrase 'mackerel sky' came from the fact that it looks similar to the markings of an adult king mackerel.

The photograph was taken in January of this year... seeing this type of sky always reminds me of snow days from the days when I lived up north. Anytime I see it, I think of cold weather, which is a welcome relief, as we have been coping with 90 plus degree temps lately... eww. (I know, I know... I complain when it's too cold, I complain when it's too hot. Told you I am geographically misplaced. I should live a more migratory lifestyle.)

Onto the weather and this crazy tornadic year.... yesterday was another historic day with 47 tornado reports, 3 fatalities that I have heard about so far (associated with trees and flooding), and a total of 410 severe weather reports!!! (You can click on the graphic above for updated totals.) When I first posted that tornado trend chart, I mentioned that if the trend continued, we could very well face a catastrophic year. Given the number of tornadoes this year and amount off destruction, I would say that we have gotten there. Unfortunately, yet another LARGE AREA of high risk for severe weather including a large likelihood for a tornado outbreak exists in an area still recovering from previous storms. These areas have contented with large, destructive tornadoes, dangerously huge hail, ferociously gusting winds, and drenching flood-creating downpours.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS ONE OF EARLY SPRING KINEMATICS WITH LATE SPRING THERMODYNAMICS. A SIGNIFICANT SVR WEATHER OUTBREAK IN TERMS OF BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY APPEARS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MDT RISK REGION...WHERE BOTH TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD DMGG WINDS APPEAR LIKELY. GIVEN QUALITY OF MOISTURE INFLOW AND MERIDIONAL EXTENT OF WARM SECTOR...THESE COULD YIELD STRONG...LONG TRACK TORNADOES.

Strong wording, huh? Of course, a Public Severe Weather Outlook has been issued.

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING WIDESPREAD DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS...STRONG TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL OVER A LARGE PART OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

MUCH OF IOWA
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA
WESTERN AND NORTHERN MISSOURI
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA
WESTERN...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN

A worse consideration is that this same area is the target area for a moderate risk for severe weather tomorrow, and a slight risk for severe weather on Saturday. Conditions are ripe. My heart sunk when I saw the outlook for today. The folks in these areas, this very large area need to be vigilant about watching the weather and heeding EVERY warning issued.

1800EDT Update:

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS
PARTS OF WESTERN MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM 455 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER... THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 90 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CHANUTE KANSAS TO 50 MILES NORTHEAST OF FALLS CITY NEBRASKA.

God bless,
~Dewdrop